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Climate change - a retard’s perspective

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by The Internet, Jan 17, 2014.

  1. The Internet Member

    I was challenged to comment on global warming in a thread that wasn't about that. Figure I'd start a new thread.

    If the world needs me to get my head on straight about global warming, the world is doomed. I just don't see myself getting that up to speed on such a complex issue. There has to be a better way to insure our future other than relying upon me.

    Sheepishly I will share my opinions, based on hearing stuff, just to document my current state of ignorance as one documents the beginning of a journey just for the entertainment value later.

    1. Earth's atmosphere is slowly warming.
    2. CO2 content in the atmosphere is a significant factor in the warming.
    3. Human production of CO2 is a significant part of observed increases in atmospheric CO2.
    4. Our atmosphere and our oceans have hot spots and cold spots and therefore currents.
    5. Temperature alone is an inadequate measure of heat energy, due to chemistry and stuff. So we're not going to see linear warming as the Earth's greenhouse traps a little more of the Sun's energy than before. More like ups and downs in average temperatures per year.
    6. People have developed atmospheric models using all the understood significant variables. They test these models by seeing how well they predict the past and also, how well they work for Venus.
    7. The models have worst-case and best-case scenarios. Both are not so great.
    8. The models can't account for future technology that might reduce our dependence upon CO2 producing fuels.
    9. Political opportunists use the climate issue just as they use all crises, to rally personal armies to fite! So it's hard to figure out what's real and what is spin.
    10. On the one hand, the Kochs and other oil fat cats have been pouring millions into think tanks tasked to poop out "global warming is a hoax" papers. They need to fuck off.
    11. On the other hand, the crazier parts of the green movement tend to say alarmist things. They promote conspiracies and seem to want a revolution so they can get some kind of New Age utopia.
    12. Scientists are pretty good at sifting evidence if they are left alone to do just that.
    13. Scientists inform policy but they generally don't promote policy. Once they take on that role, they’re functioning as activists, not scientists. That’s fine. Any citizen can be an activist.


    Okay, that's my starting place. I will add dox of interest as I come across them.
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  2. White Tara Global Moderator

    One small note on this topic. The term 'climate change denier' has been deliberately coined, and bandied about as a pejorative tool to dismiss both scientists, and laypeople alike who fail to toe the ideological line. That in and of itself raises my suspicion level re climate change. After all Science has rightly had a long and healthy relationship with the sceptic, so why term them deniers rather than sceptics? An open mind with a constant thirst for all the facts are healthy tools for the gaining of truth IMHO.

    Science, in a lot of fields, is in constant state of evolution and is accepted as such. Why in the area of climate science is it now accepted as immutable fact that human activity is the cause of this latest period of climate change? Why are any other scientific results that vary from this conclusion pilloried and diminished on their face?

    Finally, Who is set to profit by this, and by how much?
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  3. Incredulicide Member

    A significant increase in the frequency of severe weather events, including extremes of both hot and cold, is happening because... (finish this sentence)
    I'm enjoying watching the Australian Open tennis, but I'm not sure why the women's games are allowed to be put on hold due to extreme heat but the men's games are not.
  4. TheCure Member

    The only thing I know about global warming that hasn't been said is the some scientist think that even if humans we to completely abandon all CO2 generating emissions, then the temperature will still rise because the warming is delayed.
  5. The Internet Member

    Scientists aren’t supposed to have ideological lines. Their job is to summarize the evidence. That summary may change, but not because we think people are too close minded, or mean, or group thinky or whatever. The only thing that can change a summary of the evidence is moar evidence.

    So if it really is the case that the evidence --meaning, papers published in recognized, peer reviewed scientific journals (all the relevant papers, not just some of them)-- is best summarized like this: “human CO2 production is causing a greenhouse effect which may cause rapid shifts in climate over the next 100 years,” then that is that, really.

    You don’t have a “debate” over what is the evidence, once you know what it is.

    Propagandists kick up controversy outside the scientific literature to fool the public into thinking a controversy exists within the scientific literature. This is very sneaky and we need to get wise to this so we can stop such efforts.

    There are some debates over how people extrapolate from their models for the future. But as I understand, the evidence is like, 99.9% in support of the claim that the Earth’s atmosphere has been getting warmer over the past 100 years, and over 90% in support of the claim that human CO2 production is contributing to that warming trend.
  6. Anonylemmi Member

    Who defines what is "evidence" and what is not? This where they slipped "consensus" in.
  7. The Internet Member

    All the papers published in the peer reviewed scientific literature that are relevant to some question count as evidence. The scientists have methods for adding together all those bits of evidence into review articles which are peer reviewed prior to publication, and reviewed again by peers after publication. So review papers that survive that process usually are pretty good.
  8. White Tara Global Moderator

    One has to agree when tenure , money, politics, ideology and commercial interest are at stake even the scientific community can be influenced away from the truly open minded nature of scientific exploration in any given field.
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  9. No Ruler Member

    Ya'll posting in a troll thread meant for me. I left the thread he is referencing TWO days ago. he must have been stewing in his juices all this time.

    TI, I have a request for dox. I want the exact references where this incredible consensus was reached. It would be nice if you could make a list of all the scientists working in the field. That Curry interview you wouldn't listen to mentioned that "Climate scientist" is a relatively new term, the last decade, so be sure to include those working in fields that study the subject but with their traditional name.

    Second, I wonder if you have read the confounds on any of the studies you have looked at. This is the section in the conclusion where the scientists talk about all the confounds, that is, those things they cannot control. In complex systems such as weather, the confounds are profound so I am wondering if you are familiar with what the scientists themselves say about this.

    Then, I would like the exact consensus you say these scientists have reached. By this I mean the exact wording showing the exact ideas this alleged consensus covers. The more specific, the better..

    If you can't produce those dox and statements, then ya'll niggars are posting in a troll thread
  10. No Ruler Member

    I will take that further. Is it one of the most profoundly anti science phrases in the lexicon today. It does all those things you say, and it deliberately associates critics with Nazis.

    It's brilliant internal PR, but the average person will look at that and wonder what the fuck is wrong with those people for talking like that. It works if you are a true believer, otherwise, it makes you look like an idiot who refuses skepticism and approves of confirmation bias, the very reason science exists.

    AS I said, the most profoundly anti science phrase in use today.
  11. The Internet Member

    This is not a troll thread. Other people have brought up the global warming thing.

    I’m not going to pretend to be a climate scientist writing a review article because I’m not competent to do so.
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  12. I am not either BUT WHERE HAVE MY FUCKING COLD WINTERS GONE
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  13. The Internet Member

    For some claims the evidence is iffy and reasonable people may disagree. For others, the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor or against.

    People are skeptics when they say, “I will withhold judgment until someone shows me the evidence."

    People are deniers when they pretend that the evidence is iffy when it actually is overwhelmingly in favor of some conclusion.
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  14. wolfbane Member

    North America. Polar Vortex FTW.
  15. White Tara Global Moderator

    It should never be stated that a consensus has been achieved until that consensus itself can be proven. Until that point the consensus is merely the opinion of the loudest voice or the most well funded or connected.
  16. Permafrost gone in canada , not coming back houses of the inuit collapsing
  17. The Internet Member

    If you have evidence that contradicts the prevailing view, that is interesting to people and likely will mean that your paper will get published in a high impact factor journal.

    But if you don’t have evidence and you go around saying that the many thousands of scientists working in fields related to climate, such as oceanography, forestry, ethology, atmospheric physics, organic chemistry, geology --if you say that all the work done by all these people in countries all around the planet for the past 50 years is corrupt, you will seem like a retarded moonbat.

    The key thing is evidence. If you have it, you are good.
  18. We have bugs here now that formerly stayed way the hell south like the tiger musquito or how it translates
  19. The Internet Member

    Very good point. I will try to find some scientist saying something about the consensus.
  20. White Tara Global Moderator

    Throughout history has the permafrost waxed or waned? I would be interested in seeing some relevant dox on this.
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  21. White Tara Global Moderator

    This ignores the fact that the 'general consensus' has been swept up in the powerful global phenomenon, the new religion if you like, that is the climate change lobby. If you value your funding and the longevity of your scientific career you best not rock the boat.
  22. Are you refering to 12,500 years ago ?
  23. White Tara Global Moderator

    I am referring to any and all documentation gleaned from core sampling as far back as that allows.
  24. The Internet Member

    If you can’t back your claims and you’re in the middle of some politically hot issue, yeah you probably are going to suffer. That’s unfortunate because scientists need room to be a little speculative and creative in order to come up with new ideas.

    But if you have evidence you are safe. Suppression of evidence is still a very uncool thing in science. If other people can double-check your findings somehow, you’re good.
  25. You are right nothing to see here carry on
  26. White Tara Global Moderator

    :) You have such faith that the scientific community cannot be influenced away from their core noble principles of honouring open-mindedness. I wish I did.
  27. The same payed for Scientists that once helped the smoking industry are now paid for shills for the oil industry

    There is zero openmindedness in America just corparate governance through the all (not so mighty anymore) dollar

    Scientist in the US let themselves be .... in the ass for a cheap thrill of being on the frontpage of a science magazine
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  28. White Tara Global Moderator

    I am Speaking strictly from a non scientific perspective and as one who counts herself as a sceptic simply because I have yet to see the conclusive evidence. I pissed myself laughing the other day when reading a news article stating concerns for the loss of ice from global warming in GREENLAND. :) I know I know, its the rate its going at that is of concern, but it did make me laugh!
  29. The Internet Member

    Because scientists are just like you and me. They want to understand what is really going on. They get mad and act like SPs sometimes, but usually with good reason. Just like when we have moonbats coming here and bringing up the same tired bs about 9/11 being an inside job or BigPharma trying to lower our IQs so the New World Order can take over. We don’t usually engage with that stuff. Often we just send it to the Thunderdome.

    It is good to be open minded, but not so open minded your brains fall out.

    We do have our little culture here that can sometimes suck us into error. For example, we recently had someone claiming Hubbard sexually abused one of his daughters. That kinda fits with our idea of Hubbard, who was pretty pervy. But to our credit, we asked for dox and there were none so that claim got no traction.

    Why didn’t we just fall for that pedo claim about Hubbard? I think, in part, because we know that making claims we can't support can damage our credibility. So even though the claim, if believed, might help to end Scientology, we’re not going to embrace it because we don’t want to be accused of making shit up.

    When people say that there exists peer pressure within science that is negative toward those who question climate change, they are probably right. But that bias may be based upon evidence and may be rational and appropriate. Still, you can get new evidence into the discussion if it really is new evidence. People love surprises.
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  30. White Tara Global Moderator

    Consider how tenure appointments and university funding to departments has become quite the political and competitive cutthroat world though. Scientists just as the rest of the world often start out with noble intent but can be seduced and corrupted along the way. We are all capable of being compelled to act in a certain way as a means of self preservation. There are larges sums of money at stake for those involved in climate change related industries, the possibility remains. A bit cynical perhaps but worth considering.
  31. The Internet Member

    Here is your consensus, bb. Nothing like what the Kochs say.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686.full
  32. The Internet Member

    Sure. But it’s hard to corrupt *all* the scientists working on some problem all around the world. Plus, the corruption is not likely to be in just one direction. Oil and coal producing countries are more likely to be biased toward minimizing concerns about global warming, while countries with strong green movements may have a bias in the other direction.
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  33. White Tara Global Moderator

    Thanks for that an interesting informative piece. I did find in that article a sentence that piqued my interest;

    Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point.

    Does this suggest that there is still room to discuss or examine this possibility? what does this mean?

    Has more recent consensus been achieved on the difference between the rates of natural climate change phenomena and man induced climate change?
  34. The Internet Member

    A paper presents evidence and relates it to what is already known. Good papers don’t stray too far from the evidence at hand. So my guess is, the papers that made no comment on the role of human CO2 production in global warming simply did not have enough new evidence in them relevant to that question specifically.

    For example, if you’re studying growing seasons and noting that they’re getting longer in certain places, you say just that. You don’t add in stuff about how humans are causing the longer growing seasons and OMG we’re all gonna die.
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  35. White Tara Global Moderator

    Ok, so according to that worthy article it is safe to say that climate warming is accepted consensus of the global scientific community and its likely by facility of mans actions? Or am I reading it wrong :)
  36. [IMG]

    Can somebody please come and change MY fucking climate.
  37. The Internet Member

    The permafrost issue is pretty scary because it’s a positive feedback issue. A little warming triggering much more warming.

    So even if we all decide that we just don’t know how much human CO2 production is impacting the warming process, it’s not a bad idea to try to cut back. How to do this, I can’t say. Moar telecommuting? Helping the 3rd world to Internet ASAP so they can skip industrialization and go right to info tech incomes? Tons more forests? I dunno.
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  38. BLiP Member

  39. The Internet Member

    That’s my impression.

    The most interesting thing to me is, how some media outlets make it seem like scientists have diverse views and no real consensus. That is simply not true.

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