Did Rafsanjani blink?

Discussion in 'News And Current Events' started by Bugs Bunny, Aug 22, 2009.

  1. sheeeeeeesh!!!
    I have to admit-all these politicians /regime fags /etc with the exception of Mousavi/Kourobi have never been direct in any of their dealings
    its rather like a disfunctional family,where there is no real and direct honesty,only inuendo,sarcasm,hidden meanings...
    they seem to be treading on eggshells around each other,as though none of them have an iota of trust in themselves or any of the others...
    is it because they are shit scared of having thir heads lopped off? or that they will be threatened
    I mean its all headgames /I dont know really what is exactly happening there-but if there is a carefully planned course of action I am truely amazed at how its being done:)
    maybe its alittle like the courts to the royal families in the old days where all the courtiers were a bunch of people pleasers who laughed at the jokes of the queen even if they didnt think they were funny-as they were shit scared of not being seen to be sucking on the queens tit..

    anyway I hope the iranian people get a much much much better deal than they have had over the last few decades-they are a beautiful nation of people who have so very much to offer the world- i hope one day I will be free to walk in Azadi square hand in hand with my iranian bothers and sisters and breathe in the clean fresh air of freedom , justice and safety
  2. I do too. Getting there, unfortunately, doesn't seem to be so simple. Am hoping along with you every day.

  3. Nedjarsan Member

    Back from weekend

    Ok guys, no matter what Raf does right now, i am not in the state to 100% trust him anymore.

    This is surely an attempt to quiet down the masses, but for what reason ?

    The masses should not be quite untill signifficant changes are made.

    Yes we all know, that developments in Iran take pretty much longer than in the rest of the world.
    Never the less i do not see it as an option to take this for a reason to not push it anymore.
    I know we all get a bit tired but that is exactly what the regime counts on.

    I made a lot of posts comparing the current situation with other totalitarian systems from the past. In many aspects it had been prooved true.
    I am strongly convinced now that there is a deal between Raf and Khamenei.

    The regime seams to get tired it's self of not getting a real grip on the situation.
  4. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    <smacks forehead with hand. drags hand down to beard which is annoyingly itchy today. disguise of glasses and nose get in way provoking minor aggravation. and some laughter from wife.>

    ok. last post on this thread for me. i know there is distrust for Raf- all politicians in Iran have bloody hands. maybe all senior politicians in all countries have bloody hands as well, i do not know.

    Nedjarsan, my friend, i have learned a lot from you about sarcasm and other humor, and i value your insight and your posts. but Raf is specifically asking the politically controlled media to voice the complaints of the people. he therefor is giving those voices legitimacy and asking these voices to continue, not be quiet. he wants the people's complaints to be addressed.

    Raf *is* the voice of Khamenei - the Supreme Leader - right now. if there is a deal it is something like 'STFU Khamenei !!' end of deal. (please excuse the implied profanity) this implies Mojtaba is under arrest. [hugely important] Ahmadi was not present, this implies he is deposed, removed and absent from, regular legal government.

    we will know how well this has succeeded by these factors:

    Raf lives through the next few days/weeks. if he did not have a bulls eye on his back before, rest assured he does now. there does not exist a wheel barrow large enough for this man's 'peach stones';

    we will see how the politically motivated media responds. who is on the side of whom will be deduced from reactions/propaganda/stories appearing in these media outlets;

    we have seen Mashaei and Mortazavi basically ignore government statements, inquiries, indictments, etc. this is not a good sign. if events continue in this vein, we will know Raf's bid for peaceful change is being ignored by the criminals.

    seriously, i know i have made some seemingly outlandish predictions here and (in a generally even more hidden way) on Twitter. (almost entirely all of which have come true!) but this is not a prediction. these are Raf's own words, spoken to the most powerful people (legally) in Iranian government. and spoken in the name of the most powerful single figure in Iranian politics.
  5. Akhbar Azadi Member

    I do so admire your ability to patiently explain everything sp4rrpwh4wk. I'd have given up and gone home long ago! Iran needs more people like you.
  6. Machiavelli Member

    Yeah, manyfold thanks, sp4rrowh4wk.
    From all here, I presume.
  7. Nedjarsan Member

    We all appreciate spr4rrow for the threats and we all know that we all appreciate spr4rrow.

    So i will not put anymore feathers up his ars... (lmao)

    The thing is sp4rrow that the foreign media judges his acting quite different.
    I think they know a little about Iran too, perhaps not to the extent you do.

    Never the less i still see Raf. as a dangerous man.
    I have big doubts about his integrety because of his attitude handling the whole thing. For me it looks more that he is following his own course than the course of the people.

    Lets look back a bit...

    Raf. plans to candidate
    Seeing there is more popularity for Moussavi he steps aside (perhaps he already knows that in the end of the day Moussavi stands no chance; perhaps he is already informed about the planned rigging after he is so close to Khamenei).
    He keeps cryptic and rather backdrawn about the post-election process.
    He makes one FP speach which is appeasing both sides in a way.
    He waits for Mr. AN playing out his (not so well setted up) cards.
    There is nomore support from him to Moussavi.
    In the end of the day we will see him as President or even replacement of Khamenei.
    This is like a populistic opportunist would do it.
    There is nothing worser than a populistic-opportunist in these kind of situations.

    Like a lion waiting for its prey beeing exhausted by the bunch of others, to slash at the right moment.
    But always remember: the lion, no matter how cute and majestic he looks, is no cuddling animal; he is viscious and leathal.

    So it is nice of Raf. to encourage the ppls to step foward with their alligations in public...
    To be honest: what would you do if you are not so couragous and you know that the whole police-apperatus will chase you and your family to the bone ?
    (-> my post about dictatorship)
    that is exactly what is going on.

    Very honestly:

    Do you really think Rafsanjani wants any basic changes ?
    Do not forget, this system brought him where he is !
    A support of change of the system by him, would take away all centerstones of his political right of existance.
  8. Nedjarsan Member

    Your right about this i was f... wrong.
    I will not delete in my original post because everybody has to see that i was wrong about that.
    Sorry to all, i just got mixed up with names. In this case fataly wrong.

    i also talked it through with my (iranian)contacts, nobody 100% trusts Raf.
    sorry to say.

    i know that sp4rrow has a good look on Raf. and rather understands him and his actions in his interpretation or direct information.
    I like sp4rrows devotion and his great efforts.
    Sadly that does not take away my doubts.

    Where did he mention or where was he quoted that he said that in his oppinion the system failed ?
    He himself beeing a cleric will never ever change from an islamic republic to a secularized republic. I just will not belive that untill history prooves me wrong.
    We had that so many times that a minor despot was chosen as less worse option to a major despot. It always ended up to a crash.
    Anyhow, the word republic is not worth a cent if the ppls to be elected are pre-selected by some sort of gremium and not by the ppls themselfs.
    putting an end to the chaos and quieting out the chants does not mean that u stand on the side of the people.
    He is clever like a cunning prophet.
    Like he is acting he will end up as a winner, one or the other way.
    Lets all hope that he does not do it only for his own power.
  9. Opinion from the ordinary

    IMHO, (and it is very humble indeed, timidly offered from a very ordinary 'everyman/woman') maybe no one should trust anyone else 100%. After all, every one of us is human.

    And, IMHO, over the years, foreign media hasn't had such a fine record at judging Iran. Further, not all foreign media has judged Rafsanjani in the way you describe.

    Rafsanjani has a centrist reputation as one who works towards consensus, and behind the scenes if possible. The 'behind the scenes' method can provide opportunities for saving face, which may be important in Iranian culture. Agreed, Rafsanjani is following 'his own course' -- the debate is about what that course is, isn't it?

    How can anyone know that what we see happening now is not, in part, a result of behind the scenes manuvering? For example, the Grand Ayatollah statements, the non-arrests of Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi, the new head of Judiciary appointment, the speaker's provision for the testimony of abused prisoners.

    Rafsanjani is, if recall is correct, 75-years-old and a well-established billionaire. He has struggled with many others on both sides of the argument for decades to develop their country. He says Iran needs to emphasize the 'republic' part of the setup -- legitimate voting, free speech, responsible press, compliance with the constitution and the country's laws (which theoretically can be changed in a republic). This is the antithesis of the other side's goal.

    And perhaps the IRGC/Ahmadinejad coalition does have the most to lose in this contest. They are the ones who are breaking the law, running roughshod over the constitution and committing ghastly crimes as they strike down Iran's beautiful people at whim. There can be consequences.

    They have demonstrated clearly how they now run almost everything in Iran. And this election past was supposed to be the capstone of their control, the end of change, right? No more voting, forget the constitution, total control of the Iranian public, the compleat dictatorship. They hold the violence card, too, don't they? Martial law could be only a breath away. With the possibility of the deaths of thousands more innocents.

    The most urgent goal should be to stop the suffering. If Rafsanjani's stated changes can occur -- real voting, constitutional rights restored, the rule of law with a responsible legal apparatus -- without the violence, other changes will follow. Iranians can then demonstate peacefully and freely without fear. The rest of the story can unfold gradually over time to create whatever 'system' the people want.

    Whether Rafasanjani is imperfect may not be the question here. Rather, who has the position, power, intelligence and guts to orchestrate a very complicated scenario toward a productive and peaceful result?

    Re-reading the July 17 Friday Prayer sermon (especially Part II) can be persuasive. (Had put this on a site some time ago for the convenience of others. - Rafsanjani Friday Prayer Sermon (July 17, 2009) - There are also, of course, many other places to find an English translation.)

    This one, very ordinary person hopes Rafsanjani can succeed. If he can, the people will be the ultimate winners.

  10. Nedjarsan Member

    that is exactly what i stated before; ty

    i 100% agree on that; but by what means ?

    I do not see how he will do that

    Ty for your valuable thoughts "unregistered".
    You know i so desperately want a change for me and my Iranian family.

    I still do not like the idea that this is happening this way.
  11. Nedjarsan Member

    Yer in the end of the day we sadly have to stick to that.

    - for another long time again -
  12. Thank You

    Originally posted by Nedjarsan
    Your situation must be incredibly difficult, and your understanding very deep. The courage demonstrated for the whole world to see during the last couple of months is rare and inspiring. Please accept my sincere wishes and constant prayers for the safety, peace and freedom of the Iranian people. Those wishes and prayer are a part of me now and will not cease.

    Thank you again - /seaofliberty
  13. They are certainly going after Rafsanjani and his family and I think that says it all.
    This isn't the first time he has been brought up at these trials but it is the first time I believe his family has been implicated.

    Enduring America
  14. Machiavelli Member

    I stated this before: I don't think he has to.
    If Raf's party manages to restore law and constitutional order in the prisons, then large, peaceful demonstrations can easily gain enough momentum to force wider changes.

    This fight "to uphold the law" should be his best bet to defeat his declared enemies, anyway. Which he simply has to do - no real choice there. Ahmadi picked up a fight with him - openly, so Raf would be dumb to ever trust him or try to cut a deal with him. With Khamenei yes, with Ahmadi no.

    I am convinced, if Raf gets the upper hand the SoG will profit handsomely. Regardless of Raf's true intentions.
  15. AN going after Hashemi Rafsanjani

    The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani | Enduring America

    Whoa.. things are getting very serious this week
  16. Visionary Member

  17. Visionary Member

    Was that Jannati?
    Grandpa Grumpy ;)
  18. Dro Member

    That would be Ali Jafari.


    He doesn't strike me as a someone who makes jokes or idle threats.

    But as soon as they arrest Karroubi, Mousavi or Khatami, all hell will break loose. Rafsanjani may be a different story, but I am pretty sure he knows how to take care of himself.
  19. It they successfully arrest Rafsanjani, and no one makes a fuss, that will make them confident enough to try to arrest the other three, too. They are testing their limits, to see how far they can go without pushing too far and making everyone explode on them all at once. Which shows that they do fear that happening. But if the people do not explode on them, they will keep pushing, and pushing, and gutting, and gutting, until there is no opposition left to resist them.

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