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HARD NUMBERS: Survey from Iran last year

Discussion in 'Iran' started by Unregistered, Jul 8, 2009.

  1. Results of survey from last year in April 2008. They seem to mirror the kinds of numbers we saw in the election result.

    http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/apr08/Iran_Apr08_rpt.pdf

    "About two thirds of Iranians make positive assessments of Iran’s government and general direction. Asked, “Generally speaking, do you think things in Iran today are going in the right direction or…the wrong direction?” 65 percent say things are moving in the right direction, while 24 percent disagree."

    "Three in four Iranians say that they trust the government to do what is right at least some of the time. Respondents were asked how much of the time they “trust the national government in Tehran to do what is right.” Forty-eight percent said the government could be trusted most of the time, and another 26 percent said it could be trusted some of the time. Just 14 percent answered “rarely” (11%) or “never” (2%)."

    "Two thirds also approve of how President Ahmadinejad is handling his job at home and his dealings with other countries. Sixty-six percent approved “of the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president,” while 22 percent disapproved. To probe deeper into these sentiments of support, the study asked questions about “the way President Ahmadinejad has been traveling abroad and speaking about Iran’s foreign policy.” Sixty-three percent said the president’s activities have made “the overall security of Iran” “mostly better”; only 14 percent said this has made Iran’s security mostly worse. Similarly, 64 percent said Ahmadinejad’s activities had made “other countries’ views of Iran” mostly better; 16 percent said his work had made these countries’ views worse."

    Note how strong Ahmadinejad's support is amongst people with lower income --- this has of-course been the policy of the President, to bring the masses of Iran closer to the Islamic government. And he has been successful in doing this, of-course, the concern for the economy is an issue, and no one in the government is denying that... But it would be very wrong to say that this leads to the people being alienated from the Islamic Republic.

    Among low-income respondents, 75 percent approved of Ahmadinejad’s performance;

    When asked whether “Shari’a should play a larger role, a smaller role, or about the same role as it plays today” in the way Iran is governed, only 14 percent wanted Shari’a to play a smaller role. However, only a third wanted it to play a larger role (34%). Nearly half preferred to hold the status quo on Shari’a (45%).
  2. Seems the only ones alienated are those that are privileged already and want social freedoms like the West. The same ones sitting on Twitter, youtube, blogs, and here.
  3. freeIran134 Member

    Question, if you do not believe any of this will come to pass than why are you wasting your life here?
  4. This is from last year.

    In politics, a week is a lifetime.

    You are outdated as hell.

    Mind if I tell you that last year, Bush was president of the united states?
  5. Bush's approval rating stayed pretty much the same over the course of that year.
  6. while i think some those numbers might be good i have trouble believing it was gathered from broad base of people..

    any country capable of what the Iran Gov has done in recent weeks damn sure will not allow a survey such as this be performed on a varied group of people..

    was probably all information from soldiers or Gov workers lol
  7. FreedomAgent Member

    Still you people forget that these interviews of 700 people were done while public officials were present, it's like asking a typical Russian in the hight of the cold war what they thought of the government.

    This poll has no validity

    Here is a valid poll, an interview with a typical rural Iranian

    The interviewer tells him exactly what to say on camera

    He tells him to say our goal of this protest is for Muslims to be together and to show our hate against Israel

    The poor guys still gets the answer wrong

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTsdemsI-oU&feature=related]YouTube - ‫پشت صحنه مصاحبه ساختگی صدا و سیما در راهپیمایی روز قدس‬‎[/ame]
  8. That seems a more rigorous methodology than asking those on twitter, especially in a country where only 30% have regular access to Internet. Also better than wishful thinking and speculation.
  9. It all became moot the day the first unarmed person was pulled out from a crowd, surrounded by police and beaten to death. If it was such an unpopular uprising, the government wouldn't have responded so violently.

    2/3rds of the nation are under 30, and the country is highly educated and urban. As to Twitter, if you have a cell phone, you can tweet, and if Somalians barely making enough to eat have cell phones, I'm gonna guess it's not a sign of great material wealth.

    Still, once again, after what the protests have revealed about the true nature of those in power, do you honestly believe Ahmadi maintains the same base of support he once had? Even the religious leaders have one-by-one turned against him.

    Additionally, what all these, "You guys don't pay attention to history," idiots forget is that paid rioters in 53 were nothing but a distraction so the military would have an excuse for a coupe.

    You can't BUY protests like this. The US has tried in other nations, and the results have been pathetic at best.

    And, regardless how people felt a year ago, there is an obviously large portion of the population feeling incredibly disenfranchised, and every time someone has a neighbor dragged out of his house in the middle of the night for yelling that "God is Great" from his roof, that group grows.

    So, to sum-up, though I know you will skim most of this and ignore the rest -- as your clinging to a year-old and questionable poll proves of your unwillingness to even consider anything that does not confirm your prejudices -- the people could have turned out 100% to vote AJ their ideal of perfection in human form in an election certified by every nation and organization of the world a year ago, and it would not matter today. The government reaction to the protests changed everything.

    In another year, without any stronger outside interference than the refusal of world leaders to recognize Ahmadi as the president, the people of Iran will have regained control of their country, a control that has been denied them for much too long.
  10. 2/3rds of the nation are under 30, and the country is highly educated and urban. As to Twitter, if you have a cell phone, you can tweet, and if Somalians barely making enough to eat have cell phones, I'm gonna guess it's not a sign of great material wealth.

    Only 30% in the country have internet access by all accounts. That means that HALF of those under 30 are not twittering, and also likely not among the protesters, and quite possibly are among the basij.

    Still, once again, after what the protests have revealed about the true nature of those in power, do you honestly believe Ahmadi maintains the same base of support he once had? Even the religious leaders have one-by-one turned against him.

    You mean those same religious leaders who ran against him in the last election, and opposed him in the last election? It might be helpful if you could name someone who supported him last time and opposed him this time. You are working from the false assumption that all the clerical nuts supported him last time or have similar political goals.

    You can't BUY protests like this. The US has tried in other nations, and the results have been pathetic at best.

    Agreed.

    And, regardless how people felt a year ago, there is an obviously large portion of the population feeling incredibly disenfranchised, and every time someone has a neighbor dragged out of his house in the middle of the night for yelling that "God is Great" from his roof, that group grows.

    Large portion indeed. But still not a majority.

    I actually agree with your other points, but don't think the protesters themselves will bring any change if they keep being so self-absorbed as they have been. Either they expand their support to bring Ahmadidinnerjacket supporters to their side, or things as they are, or we make decisive military moves.
  11. Wow. Just when I thought humanity was turning the corner.
  12. Oh lets not be so self-righteous.

    There are millions dying all over the world, including by our own government and tax dollars. But the Iran protests are "sexy" for you guys because it serves our governments interests. None of you cried or talked about "humanity turning a corner" when we killed innocents in Afghanistan or Iraq. None of you cried when the Sri Lankan government killed thousands two months ago. None of you are crying for those killed in Honduras or China right now.
  13. Any poll conducted in a country where the average person has a healthy fear of speaking his mind, cannot be deemed as hard evidence. I lived in Iran for years, and if a stranger approached me with politically sensitive questions, I would have self-edited my remarks no matter how harmless he seemed to be. That's the reality of life in a society where the "wrong" views can cost you not only your livelihood, but your life.

    Now a simple question to the shills who present dubious polls as "hard evidence": if the majority of Iranians oppose the protesters' views and support Ahmadinejad, where have they been in the last 3 weeks?

    Why was it that the demonstration staged to defend their candidate didn't even draw a fraction of Mousavi's crowd? Why hasn't this "majority" voiced its outrage at seeing their man "wrongfully accused" and relied on the regime's propaganda machine to do the job for them!?

    Every town in Iran would have seen the kind of crowds we saw in Tehran. The only factor that has kept this thing from spreading to the smaller towns is the fear the regime has instilled in the people. They only feel safe coming out in the big cities since it's harder to for them to be identified there.
  14. Hechicera Member

    And you know this because ... ?
  15. But some 25% had no problem voicing opposition to Ahmedinejad. Which coincidentally happens to close to the same number that voted for Mousavi and Kerroubi.

    Also a much greater number of people in the survey voiced criticism of the "unelected" institutions and said they should be elected, among other critiques of the existing system. Are you saying they ONLY were afraid of voicing against Ahmedinejad but not afraid against saying the Supreme Leader should be elected?

    Because their man is in power, and the opposition presents no threat. Historically people come out only when their party or person is removed or under threat. Like Honduras right now. Like Venezuela a few years back. Right now there is no reason for them to come out.
  16. Jaymax Moderator

    Because he's so incredibly self-righteous of course.
  17. Where are websites dedicated to those causes? Where are the protests outside their embassies? Facebook pages? Media coverage, which reflect public consumption, is a good guage of what people are hearing of following.

    150 died in one day in China. Nobody is talking about how to provide support to them.
    They dropped bombs on thousands in Sri Lanka. Nobody asides the Tamils themselves talked about how to provide support to them.
  18. What does this mean? Do you even know?:rolleyes:
    You suck at thinking. Stop trying.
  19. Not true. He started 2008 hovering in the mid to high 30s -- absolutely abysmal numbers. He ended in the low 30s to high 20s.

    When a politician loses popular support, he doesn't typically regain it.

    Starting in the Fall of 2008 the bottom dropped out from under oil prices. Along with it the Iranian economy took a nasty hit. Numbers taken in April 2008 are useless.
  20. Visionary Member

    You don't know that.
    And just because we spend more time on one situation than another at the moment doesn't invalidate our concern. And it does not mean that we are not outraged or upset at the other events as well.

    And I must say your statements seem rather inconsistent yourself, weren't you earlier talking eagerly about military action against Iran?
  21. oh hay, look what we have here.

    now kindly GTFO and go focus on those issues you care so much about elsewhere. don't come crying to anonymous for everything. NYPA
  22. A large number of people also had no problem coming to the streets even after brutal violence was unleashed by the regime. That doesn't mean a significant portion of the population wasn't intimidated by the savagery.

    The fear principle does not apply to everybody, but it does to most. When I lived in Iran there were those who openly spoke against the regime in public, but those exceptions don't counter the fact that most people have a very healthy fear of this government and its propensity for violence.

    Also, if you had asked me a year ago, I would have been more critical of the supreme leader than Ahmadinejad as well. Until the cheating scandal, he was seen more or less as a stooge of Khamenei than anything else.

    p.s. Simply Ken a.k.a Kianoush Nassiri, is that you?:)

    How is the business doing, my man? Has it slowed down with all these "sore losers" making trouble?:)
  23. Hechicera Member

    Eh, a few I knew off the top of my head, and links to some protests I remembered.

    Middle-East, or general anti- agression:
    United for Peace & Justice*:*Index

    Long War Needs Long Peace Movement – Rethink Afghanistan

    Rethink Afghanistan | Facebook

    American Friends Service Committee

    CODEPINK*:*About Us

    United for Peace and Justice - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Pledge of Resistance

    Military Families Speak Out*:*Index

    American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee: About ADC

    Iraq Body Count

    Tamils:
    Tamils Protest on Toronto Freeway - Photos | The Dominion

    Uyghurs:
    Uyghur Human Rights Project

    Uyghur American Association

    Demonstrations across Europe in support of Uighurs


    I know I missed a lot. But, if this is what I could find in 5 minutes from memory .. well. I really should introduce you to some CODEPINK and Quakers. You bet they protest, demonstrate, care and cry.

    By the way, about U.S. mainstream media coverage, my mother taught me not to believe everything I see on TV.
  24. Abolrish Member

    Simple and direct question:
    Oil price increased 5 times under Ahmadinejad administration. Why poor iranians are still poor?

    Awaiting your economic and political analisys.
  25. So, if the majority wanted Ahmadi, why close off the world's press? Why not allow reporters to interview that "majority"?? And why not allow peaceful protests??

    Sorry, dude, but you are being hopelessly naive.
  26. He is much worse than naive. His name is Kianoush Nassiri, a.k.a Simply Ken, and he is a paid shill. He's been spewing the same disingenuous garbage on various forums and is well known by the Iranian cyber community. He moved to Iran from the US five years ago and has been working for the regime since then. He has a set of talking points that he rolls out every time he is given a chance to spread misinformation and propaganda.

    Ken, if you're reading this, rest assured that you'll be exposed everywhere you set foot in. Give up this pathetic game and grow a conscience, badbakhte khodforoush.
  27. You can tell he's an idiot by the number of question marks. :) It's like shoop, you can tell by the pixels.
  28. Ray Murphy Member

    This one is easily winnable because of the internet and technology. Hundreds of thousands of Iranian people effectively asked for outside help to win by marching in the streets.

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