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Opportunity to cripple the Islamic Dictatorship

Discussion in 'News And Current Events' started by Unregistered, Aug 5, 2009.

  1. Dro Member

    Hello Sp4rrowh4wk,

    Thanks for weighing in on this. You are polite as always, and I appreciate your encouragement, even if we are not necessarily on target in this instance.

    I was thinking that the best place to hit the regime is where it hurts the most. In the oil. Now, oil installations are all going to be heavily guarded, but there are things that an insider at say a refinery could do without that much risk to himself.

    Accidents happen easily, especially when you are dealing with old, dilapidated equipment. Imagine, hypothetically, that a valve that needs to be open during regular operation were to be closed (by mistake, of course :rolleyes: ), and that the guy who was monitoring the process had to go to the bathroom at that exact instance (when nature calls, you have to answer). As a result, an important pipe will burst, forcing the plant to shut down.

    Now, to restart the plant, we obviously have to be very careful. We wouldn't want another accident to happen. So it is important that everyone takes their time and follows all safety precautions to the letter. Above all, no rush. In fact, we probably shouldn't start until tomorrow, to make sure everyone is well rested. And perhaps we should organize a (long) meeting in the morning, to make sure that everyone really knows exactly what they need to do, when we eventually get around to restarting. OK, so now it is almost lunch time. Let's wait until everyone has eaten before getting started. Etc.

    You get the picture. Of course, I have no idea how Green Iran's oil workers are. On the executive level, everyone is obviously a regime stooge. From the level of foreman and down, however, it is not so clear. Perhaps a targeted persuasion campaign could be mounted.
  2. Machiavelli Member

    In principle everything about cutting power supply should be applicable to Khuzestan as well.

    If it works in Tehran, Khuzestanis could learn about "proven methods" and see if they want to do something with it. Sepah will have a hellish time trying to protect all the long overland lines in the country.
  3. Don't anger yuor base

    Many peoples' lives depend on having electricity. People in hospitals, people at home on a breathing aid, getting dialysis at a clinic, any number of situations where a sustained loss of power could put the lives of innocent people in danger. Don't anger the people who might otherwise support you.
    You must be like a fish in an ocean full of fish, invisible to the population but a sting in the foot of the Basij.

    Stop thinking like children and think of victory without hurting the other fish.
  4. Yes, this prior poster is right!

    Endangering lives of innocent people will shoot the SOG's credibility down in no time flat, probably as low as that of the MKO. Remember, non-violent includes not harming people w/ tactics such as this.
  5. Dro Member

    In the discussion on previous pages, I think we stated that any action like this would have to be evaluated to see if any benefits outweighed the risks. Obviously, if innocent lives are put in danger, that would be unacceptable.

    On the other hand, if power is shut down to an industrial plant (preferably oil related), it may disable it for much longer than the duration of the power outage, simply because it can take a long time to start everything up in the right sequence. Something like that could perhaps be worth the risk, but as I stated previously, the consequences of discovery are so grave that you would have to think very carefully about it before you engage in such an action.

    I agree that there are safer and probably more effective things that could be done, like deliberate work slow downs or a series of "mistakes" that when they add up over time can become extremely expensive. But as I mentioned above, this requires that people in the position to carry out things like this are part of the SOG.
  6. Just remember

    There are many things we DO NOT want:

    We do not want media coverage. All publicity is bad publicity with a group like us.

    We do not want to commit terrorist acts, or do anything that could be considered one. Who would be the "bad guys" then?

    We ABSOLUTELY DO NOT want to put lives at risk.

    Remember, Napoleon's re-taking of France (100 days, I think it was called) was virtually without bloodshed-why should Iran be any different?
  7. Ariss Member

    That might not be the best history parallel here. Napoleon was a leader with enourmous charisma and popularity, something that could not be said about any of the French government those days. Now tell me of an Iranian person, who is leaving in exile, and whose popularity would parallel Napoleon. I doubt that there is one. Besides the French considered their government a puppet of foreign powers, like England, Prussia or Austria, and the nationalist sentinents have greatly helped Napoleon to overthrow his homeland. But the current goverment of Persia is the result of the 1979 revolution. You cannot blame any foreign power for imposing a clerical dictatorship on your country, just your own self.

    You should put trust in you own hands, and not a celebrated leader's one. There is absolutely no one who could single-handedly turn the tide of the current struggle. Mousavi, Khatami or Rafsanjani might be helpful to reform the country, if they had the power (something they do not have). But they do not have an unquestionable support of the military of the whole country Napoleon had of France's troops. So much for historical parallels.

    I am clearly not for bloodshed of any kind. But blood has already been split in the past two months, despite all the protests being basically non-violent. It was not the people on the demonstration who started fighting. They did not fight at all. It was the secret police of the establishment. So, while you never aimed at violence of any kind, now the See of Green is right in the middle of it. Being innocent, but that does not interest the government. So you were putting your life at risk every day. Every little expression of defience towards the rulers carries the undeniable risk of being caught, painfully tortured, humiliated, stumped, raped, tried and sentenced to inprisonment or executed. Those are indeed brave (or just foolhardy) who dare to protest every day. The free world is watching you with admiration, nevertheless!

    I also think that media coverage - if the movement really wants to succeed - is indispenseble. It helps to communicate your achievements and aims with the world and your friends. It does carry certain risks of being identifed, but those on the demonstration have already taken that risk. After all, it was their objective to be seen - not by government agents, but real people.
  8. We've already discussed this at length, Unreg.

    Hospitals have back up generators. In any case, as I have pointed out clearly, I at least am not interested in targetting residential areas. Regime-supporting businesses maybe.

    Please read more carefully before you respond. And please refrain from namecalling. It does not contribute to a rational discussion.

    As for hurting the other fish, if you had read before you posted, you would be aware of what we have already discussed. It is not possible to avoid damage completely. The goal then is to assess the risk of damage to the people and to weigh that with the benefits to the people. Do you understand that?

    I think it is fair for us to discuss the risks and benefits and then for the Iranians themselves to choose what they are willing to do. Please do not ask us to treat them as children and spoon feed them what we in our armchairs feel is acceptable for them to do.
  9. Machiavelli Member

    Quite simply, because we're dealing with monsters. Give them a possibility and they'll kill you.

    I have to acknowledge, I have all these pictures of the holocaust in my mind and here I see people that are so similar to those beasts, I could get sick.
    Maybe therefore I'm leaning to actions that are too extreme. I tend to see mainly the many lives that might be at stake in failing. (If the Sea of Green fails, most of the recently arrested people are doomed, as well as most of those still surviving from 2003 and from 1999. Don't expect mercy from Ahmadi, if he ever really gets his way.)

    To take up the lead from Dro:
    Could someone write a nice Iranian poem about the art of "bungling, dawdling and complaining to the doctor"?

    And maybe we could create a network of sympathetic doctors, that tend to diagnose a certain illness, that's rampaging everywhere suddenly.
  10. Hi sp4rrowh4wk!

    Valves opening and closing are controlled by programmable motor controls are they not? Somebody sitting at a keyboard is probably less noticeable than somebody jimmying with a wrench. But then, such a computer person is probably 'programmed' himself/herself. Sigh...

    However, surges are probably not that good for digital switches, are they? Gee... let me think... how do surges happen? Small surges sometimes happen by switching the power bar on and off. Somebody could do that quite accidentally with his/her foot. That's an inside consideration though.

    Back to the great outdoors and climbing in the beautiful mountains. (sound of yodelling)

    @Machi: I take it then that, in principle, you agree on the feasability of using weights to break the conductors and thus damaging the connectors by surge, rather than throwing a conductor onto the line to create a short circuit explosion. You just believe that the big pylons are doable.

    Is that correct?

    I believe the big pylons are doable also, but because they are high voltage they are likely to be monitored more closely and because a climber will be more noticeable on them, I think the pylons present more of a discovery risk. Also the height presents a really serious barrier to folks untrained in climbing.

    OK, we started discussing transformers a few weeks ago and I kaiboshed that idea because transformers are really dangerous. But can we look at this again?

    I definitely advise against any personal contact with a transformer. No going into the cage and touching stuff. No no no, Jack.

    But, transformers are usually old and badly maintained; on the verge of failing anyway. If there were some way to throw conductors on them: water, or a an armful of copper nails or copper shavings from a foundry. That would mean corroding the protective sheathing around the transformers so that the water or copper could contact some serious coils. Thoughts on how this corrosion could take place?

    No matter what method is used, some on-site research is needed. That's why I am glad that sp4rrowh4wk showed up. I think it is counterproductive to open circuits willy nilly. Open circuits seem somehow particularly suited for regime industries, not innocent countrymen. Moreover circuits should only be allowed to open on an accidental basis. Am I mistaken?
  11. CradleOfCiv Member

    Yeah hey.. Sorry but I didn't have the time to read through the whole thing. And I think what I am about to suggest might be considered violence and in which case I hope the admins will do what is needed.

    If you wanna bring down the power to whole towns, you don't do that with toys. That's real guerilla action. You use fucking explosives and bring the whole towers down. Plenty of information maybe found stored around in places from the good ole 70's...

    However, I strongly advise against taking such steps. Taking such steps would only radicalize those involved and alienate the people from that specific movement. And if you do these things, you will no longer be called the green movement. The people who were protesting with you will disown you. Remember what happened to the red movements all around the world.

    Keep doing what you are doing. That works. The other one doesn't.
  12. Ariss-I see your point on the historical parallel, on how I could have chosen a better one. My point was not the "re-taking" of a country, it was on the "bloodless" part. I was trying to say great things can be accomplished without bloodshed.

    I also see where you are coming from with the media-your view is optimistic. You assume the mass media will listen and understand our intentions, then broadcast them as such. Usually, this is not the case. I have very personal experience with this, so trust me. Since (thanks to Fox News), Anonymous already has a "hacker" and "terrorist" label, we don't need more media. They won't change their views on us. If we are shown helping protestors, the media will find something wrong with us. They may not even show us doing ANYTHING good. Remember, the media is a bunch of private-run corporations striving to get the best ratings, and therefore, the most money. Money is the root of all evil.

    Machiavelli- I understand they will try to kill you/us. However, we must not let violence breed more violence.

    As for coming back on topic, I think that we need more protestors to rout the dictatorship-think of it like a hostage situation in a bank with the government as the robbers and the Iranian protestors as the hostages. The more hostages there are, the harder it is for the robbers to maintain control-which is what they need right now.
  13. Relax, Machi. Nobody is encouraging any form of action. We are merely discussing the pros and cons of various forms of action. Some people have knowledge of electrical transmission. Some people have knowledge of oil and gas drilling. Some people have knowledge of water and sewage.

    Among these knowledgeable people a discussion has developed which will act to REDUCE THE RISKS to innocent people, should these innocent people decide on their own to adopt and/or adapt any of the ideas emerging from our discussions.

    Again, nobody is encouraging any form of action. We are only discussing.

    Ha ha! If I weren't so busy, I would take you up on that! :D

    The disease is not reading carefully, jumping to conclusions, attributing to people things which they have not said, and not respecting boundaries concerning personal choice.

    Anyway, Machi, sometimes this all gets under our skin and we have to remind each other to eat properly, sleep well, and sit under a tree for a little while. The world still has many good things in it. Many blessings. Peace to you, Bugs.
  14. The exact quote is 'radix malorum cupiditas est': the root of all evil is the love of money. Not money itself.

    And does all this good happen because enormous numbers of hostages just sit there doing nothing? If this is what you are suggesting, then I have to say that I think this is very violent and very dangerous.
  15. Machiavelli Member

    The thing with the disease was serious.

    It should be possible to engineer a steep rise in sick-leaves, if doctors are participating. Again, doctors in Khuzestan (where the oil is) would be doubly welcome.
  16. i'd love for this to happen, but the interrogators usually demand retakes when the script doesn't go as planned.

    the hacker-on-steroids biz was so laughable, though, and if the media badmouths us, we can still run our own counter-media. remember chanology?
  17. Oh! I misunderstood! Sorry. Yes, I think sickness should be treated promptly. The other side of that coin is that widespread sick leave leaves few people to man the motor controls. From sheer fatigue they could develop nervous conditions which results in their feet stepping on and off the enable switch on their power bars.
  18. Unregistered- yes, it was laughable, and yet, the average person will just listen to the news and go with them, whether the news is right or wrong. Very few people will hear our "counter-media".

    Bugs Bunny- yeah, I mean "the love of money is the root of all evil"-thanks for clearing that up. Typos happen, I guess. However, you mis-read my previous post. The "hostages" are the protestors-so the "hostages" would be Iranians ready to revolt against the "robbers". In other words, we need more active, non-violent protestors. "All it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to do nothing." Forgot who said it, but it is so true.

    Another of my stace on things- (I must update this as the conversation evolves)- I would be against shutting off oil rigs, power plants, or water plants. But if some protestors decided to raid a government office, and nab some paperwork...something along those lines-something that, instead of damaging Iran's infrastructure, it dug up some dirt on the government, and THAT was released to the media...and we know how much the media will eat that up!
  19. Machiavelli Member

    As long as people risk getting dragged to Evin only for showing up at the wrong place at the wrong time, the number of protesters will be limited - every single one of them being a hero.

    Creating heroes out of thin air is not a viable strategy.
  20. Please define 'non-violence.'

    Why?

    So the media eat it up? Then what?

    Thing is that the regime doesn't care about its reputation. It cares about:

    1) money
    2) power

    To get rid of the regime, you must cut it off from its money and its power. Everything else is make-work, feel-good diversion.
  21. Machiavelli Member

    Water plants: no-go area, totally off limits
    Oil rigs: prime target

    Non-violence is not praying and singing. It's decisive action, although the first priority is always to keep and enlarge the base of support.

    Hitting the foreign currency reserves via oil will not hit the people directly, it will hit the coffers of the regime and their ability to pay basiji first.
  22. Yes.

    One way to hit the oil is to cut off power to the rigs by means of opening the transmission circuit or by means of blowing the connectors by means of a surge.

    Another way to hit the oil is to mess up the electronic motor controls by introducing a virus into the programming or by creating an internal power surge which damages the electronics and/or connectors in the control wiring.

    Another way is to enable a fire. A fire would pose the most risk to life and environment.

    Power surges and power outages would pose the least risk to life and environment.

    Thoughts?
  23. What we have to do is find the fine line between effectivness and danger (wether it be danger to innocents, or the protestors.)

    I don't think a power surge or power outage would do ANYTHING...if it was short-term. Tehran could go without power for a couple of days and still operate.

    Another thing I think would work is blocking off government buildings, or setting up roadblocks. Stop transportation of individuals and data. Bring commerce to a standstill. Something along those lines. Even if you can't stop it, slow it as much as you can for as long as you can.
  24. Machiavelli Member

    Well, in Europe - after 3 days of power outage in a city 1/10th the size of Tehran, the military will take over. And they will be allowed to shoot. This is no joke. If you consider this to be a form of action with too much collateral damage, I tend to agree with you. But don't think it could be simply brushed off.

    But my new idea goes like this:

    Promote a campaign of sick-leaves and offer all risk-persons (police officers!!!, known troublemakers) the chance to get honestly sick.
    I am no doctor, but high up on the list would be the common flu and gastroenteritis.
    If you're a police officer and actually hate your job, faking would probably not do. But if a typical medical test proves you to be sick with something contagious enough to be a real obstacle in the line of duty with so many other officers so close, you just earned yourself two weeks of holiday (and with the nice doctor even four).
    Having the flu is not nice, but it might be better than being forced to hit girls and crying old ladies.

    Same thing for strikes in factories, etc. Have a core group of known independent-minded troublemakers sick, complete with medical tests and all, and then let all the rest of the people run to the doctor in a stampede, where he'll be excused to not look so closely anymore.

    The really big thing with the common flu is: it really looks like swine-flu and the specific test for swine-flu is pretty expensive. If you do have some kind of flu and noone knows what kind of flu, even police-officers can be pretty sure to get their sick-leave.
  25. Clearly you've never stepped foot in a medical facility before. Nearly every medical facility in the world is equipped with backup generators and energy supplies in the event that power does go out. You could not function as a medical facility without that backup.

    Right now the lives of ALL innocent people are already in danger. Remember NEDA? If people aren't willing to sacrifice power loss for the cause of overthrowing a totalitarian terrorist regime... then those particular people need to look in the mirror and blame themselves for their current plight. Going without power is a hell of a lot safer than handing out green flowers to armed basiji during a protest.
  26. why not just send some of those anthrax packets to basij offices?
  27. Yeah, just because the swine-flu IS a subtype of common flu.

    But the "biological warfare" you are talking about is far more hard to produce than you might think. Even to "willfully infect someone" with a virus like 'influenza A' isnt that simple, because the virus particles don't survive that well in the hot, dry air.

    If you really want some epidemic (I bet you don't) you should go after examples of cholera or bacillary disentery - these typically occur on a fecal-oral route, if the sewage gets into drinking water. That has about 100% chance to happen soon after "short-circuiting" these two systems. But then, the outbreak will be uncontrollable and brutal.

    If you only want to incapacitate soldiers and policemen, that's not the way to go. I heard the example of laxatives-in-cake that happened somewhere in Iran. That was simple, well-planned, not endangering any human lives and effective without much collateral damage. You should think of similar things before resorting to anything brutal.
  28. Machiavelli Member

    You misunderstood me.
    I am thinking in giving people an opportunity to infect themselves, if they choose to do so.

    That means first, that obviously it has to be something totally harmless, barely enough to get a sick-leave. And second it means that this disease - whatever it may be - will be spread in some appropriate containers. Maybe an asthma sniffer kept in the fridge.

    This is not biological warfare. This is just an excuse for people who're fed up.
  29. Before we get ahead of ourselves here...

    My first question that arises after reading all of these different tactics and strategies, is how it is possible to organize everything in the first place. The way I see it is that any operation suggested (for example disabling oil rigs) must proceed via blitz tactics, in other words to quickly arrive, fulfill the objective and disappear in a flash, as we don't want any captives and/or casualties whatsoever.

    In order to succeed with such an operation, planning and organization is KEY. The lack of such is also partially the reason behind why the movement haven't had the possibility to seize the opportunities immediately after the (s)election chaos to overthrow the government. Unfortunately things are much more complex than 1979, during which one of the key events was that the military switched sides and there was a quick overthrow of the Shah.

    Please don't take me wrong, as an Iranian in exile I am in no way blaming my own fellow Iranians, I am just pointing out that we must learn what can be done differently based on the events during these last weeks. Regardless of any ideas we come up with, me must first of all find a way to have all of our ideas, information, and knowledge passed on to the Iranians.

    How can we reach potential persons in Iran who are willing, capable and have the necessary equipment and knowledge to proceed with operations? How can we set up and maintain secure contact with them, ensuring things are being planned without the knowledge of IRGC etc.? How can we find people outside of Iran who can be of expertise, and channel their information through to the Iranians? As you begin to see, this requires basically an underground network consisting of operatives who are based in Iran.

    I say, if we are to brainstorm ideas on how to slow down or cripple the regime, the first thing we need to come up with is a strategy with which we, and especially the Iranians in Iran, can organize. This is regardless of whether the objective is to cripple oil flow via guerilla tactics, or simple but well targeted economic choices of every citizen which in masses will render the the regime completely powerless.

    That is the first objective, and I am more than willing to discuss anything regarding this issue. I hope everyone else is, too.
  30. Hi ashkan! Long time no see! How are you?

    I guess different posters frame their contributions in different ways. I propose things from my own knowledge base. I also try to reduce the action to very simple components with minimal, if any, equipment. I am a small group person.

    If folks want to use any of our proposals then the organization part is really up to them on the ground over there.

    Yes, but that can only be done by the people choosing the action. We can't do that from this end.

    OK. I'm listening. What do you think has worked? What do you think has not worked? What do you suggest?

    Yeah, so rather than being satisfied with a pile of discordant ideas on a forum list, we need to agree when an idea is complete and have a special, central place where tweeters can pick up the information and tweet the link out. Thoughts?

    I will wait for other posters to respond. I am not in a position to be useful here.

    Not yet. You are jumping the gun. And I understand why you are doing this. I have an engineering background and we are trained to think about outcomes. But I also have group facilitation training and the answer is always inside the group.

    Start simple. Build on frequent, small, simple successes. The group will find its own way of evolving.

    What are your ideas about organization, ashkan? I think before trying to organize people, it might be a good idea to organize our suggestions first. But let's hear what you have brewing.
  31. Great discussion

    This is a rather brilliant and productive discussion and I'd like to throw my 2c-worth in.

    The issue of being able to pay Basij if there's no cash can easily be solved by switching to any other commodity in plentiful supply - food, fuel and other such gifts. Or they could simply be paid in dollars and not rial. They are such loyalists, I would imagine many would go without pay if enough promises were made.

    Keeping the electricity companies busy fixing power lines to industrial areas means they either get fixed quickly or many industries lose productivity. In itself a good idea, but not for the employees. Many in low-paying jobs, are the most in need of those jobs and the money it provides. Whatever you're trying to achieve, certainly won't be achieved in a week or two. Poverty can be brutal on groups of people who already struggle to survive.

    The idea of hitting powerful people in the regime, where their business interests lie, is a good one. These people already have their money in foreign bank accounts. One of the high up, not sure which right now, has made his gazillions from pistachios. There is no doubt that others have made their booty by more nefarious and illegal activities. They do it because they can, and as long as this regime is in power, they'll never be called to account.

    But hard evidence of how corrupt the reigme is, might well put them at risk of humiliation now, and later of corruption charges. Getting evidence out should be fairly easy, as long as those doing it, can't be caught. Showing up the regime for how corrupt it is, might not bring it down, but it might persuade loyalists to think again. Governments are supposed to help people, not steal from them.

    We already know that this brutal regime has not listened to protesters, and it is taking wide-spread and unthinkable (to us in the western world) steps to dissuade anyone else from protesting. In many ways they're winning that particular battle. Being a possible suicide protester (which in essence is what you're doing) isn't my idea of an effective method of bringing the regime down. It just allows the regime to flex its muscle even more. That hurts people, it doesn't hurt the regime. Think Burma, China, North Korea and so on. People under those regimes are easily and rapidly expendable for the good of the regime.

    I have the highest respect for people in Iran who continue to put their lives, health and sanity at risk by continuing to go out on the streets. To date, it hasn't done much except let the world know what's going on. There have always been rifts in the regime - now they're just a tad more public. It's not going to bring the regime down.

    Where you need to aim some of this sabotage thinking is at the rich - the people who can well afford to close their businesses for a while, still be able to survive easily, and also pay their employees. Some of the bazaris are prime examples. But only some. I know several bazaris who are struggling, and have been for the past few years. I also know several who are rich beyond your imagination.

    If the threat of currency devaluation and a steep rise in inflation doesn't persuade these bazaris and other rich business owners to shift their interests elsewhere, I don't know what will. But many despots have ruled despite their economies in total failure. Zimbabwe comes to mind. Complete mismanagement, 94% unemployment, inflation rates sky high, and suffering people.

    I think intervention also has to come from a different side. It's mighty unfortunate that no one international organization can go into these countries and disable the government by arresting the perpetrators of major and wide-scale human rights abuses. But I think this should be one avenue that should be pursued. We can all sit here and say, "Isn't it terrible about what's happening in Iran." But really, what can we out here do that will actually bring the regime down?

    Forget the UN. They are a great big fat white elephant whose main effectiveness is the sometimes ineffective distribution of food. Other than that, they are totally useless. Whatever sanctions or actions they call for, mostly gets ignored. The current regime in Iran has basically told the rest of the world to shove it. It doesn't care - neither about public opinion, nor about anything else. Whoever they are in bed with - Venezuela, North Korea, Russia etc, are already on their side.

    They also have enough intelligence and muscle to know that invasion by a US, UK etc, alliance will unite people. Secretly I think that's what they're hoping for.

    If the regime is brought down, they will want to be brought down by war. It's somehow much more legitimate that way and the great escape from Iran, with their worldly goods is open. I suspect that soon we will see more provocation from the regime thrown at the west than has already appeared.

    After Abtahi, you're not going to get a single other member of the Regime or the Mullahs, speaking out unless they're outside the country. I'm also sure that any internal strife and split that is being reported, is well on its way to being healed and peace-brokered by other internal deal and peace-makers. Promise people enough and they will keep quiet. It works the same way as the terror they have taken to the streets - it scares people into submission.

    I'm pondering... how are you really going to bring the regime down without huge hardship, loss of life, or making the regime even more brutal in its will to survive?

    Who is around to act as a caretaker government, to promote democracy, change the constitution, and bring peace to Iran?

    And yes, we also must admit there are loyal regime supporters. How will those be persuaded that democracy is needed and desired?

    Bringing a regime like Iran's down, requires meticulous planning, plenty of time, and minimal loss of life. That's a tall order, all things considered, and could well take one or two years. That's far too long to wait.

    Despite Iranians not wanting it, I think they will soon wonder whether outside intervention may well be their best option. It might be over very quickly under those circumstances. Shorting out electricity grids hurts too many and puts too many at risk. I doubt it will bring about the liberation of the Iranian people.
  32. Machiavelli Member

    The basic assumption is: if you bring down the banks, the regime is more or less finished.
    -It's competence to manage the country will be irreparably put in question.
    -It's ability to deliver on promises will be put in question.
    -Patriots (IRIA) will feel the urgency to take actions against the fanatic radicals .

    That's the starting point. It might turn out to be wrong, but that's what I believe in the moment.
    I know a few things about economics and I know that banks are inherently vulnerable.

    Much of that is psychological: If enough people lose trust in the banks or the future of the economy in general, it's over.

    So the hope is, that the prospect of a protracted ever escalating economic crisis will lead to a bank run. Mission accomplished, one base of support for the regime irreparably shattered.

    If this is achieved quickly, harm for the people will be minimal.

    But of course it depends upon believable threats. People must be REALLY afraid, they must run to bring their savings to safety.

    So in the end, to prove beyond doubt the ability to bring about total economic standstill should be enough. (At least to topple the bank system.)

    At the same time it's important to not escalate too quickly to alienate and enrage the people.

    A campaign to work slow, play sick, make stupid mistakes definitely looks like a promising start.
  33. I agree.

    Which is why I have consistently urged folks to contact their local Red Crescents to make sure humanitarian aid is ready to go before this Winter.

    Let's regroup here. How many of you have done this? Have you, Gist?

    I guess this is what many of us have been talking about. For some reason, some people seem to think we are thinking up things to hurt non-regimers. I guess they don't read very carefully.

    The regime doesn't care. I doubt if their supporters care either.

    Iran's achilles heel is her oil/gas fields. I think that if Russia or China believe that Iran is heading for ruin and dragging her oil/gas fields down with her, then look for intervention from those two countries.

    Canadian MP Irwin Cotler has already launched a human rights suit against the regime.

    I agree.

    It's never going to happen.

    By using our brains.

    Huge numbers of highly educated, capable Iranians.

    Persuasion? They need only to be contained.

    Are you leaping to the conclusion that plans only started a month ago?

    D-oh! Don't tell me! Let me guess! You have not taken the trouble to actually read what has been posted on this subject. Right?

    Some transmission lines serve residential areas. Some transmission lines serve regime industries. Question of the day: which transmission lines do you think we are talking about taking down? (Choose one of the following)

    1) transmission lines to regime industries? or

    2) transmission lines to regime industries? or

    3) transmission lines to regime industries?
  34. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    Bugs Bunny, you continue to make many valuable posts here.

    Ashkan Goldstein, your input is valuable. please be aware, however, discussing operational techniques (how to organize/communicate, etc) in an open forum might not be the best idea. we are organized, resistance is organized. communication lines are established. any action must be undertaken with the idea that regime thinkers also play wargames and have important facilities guarded. brainstorming is always appreciated.

    Machiavelli, rumors regarding the banking system have begun. many ordinary people started moving their monies some days/weeks ago. we can only hope that as they speak with more people, the banking system will weaken. because so many currency reserves have been moved out of the country, foreign banks will need to be enlisted for help of this nature. any contacts you have in international banking and finance would be enormously helpful. also i only wish to clarify from your earlier post for possibly new readers- the loyal republicans are the IRIA (army/non RG military), the radical fanatics are IRGC (and not all of them).

    it seems as though Akhbar Azadi is a journalist, but perhaps i am mistaken. in any event, stories of the unconfirmed source variety may also be helpful in bringing down banking systems by encouraging people to become more economically intelligent, acting prudently, and above all to avoid panicking. please see my recent tweets re. fire safety for oil workers. of course, i do not want anyone's integrity to suffer as a result. articles in the press can also be used to laud banks or other institutions who have divested from Iran or Irani business owned by the IRG.

    Gist101, your new voice is welcome. i would like to answer some of the issues you raise, stated or not (if i understand the gist of your comments) by saying i am working as fast as i can.

    the detailed answers are, naturally much longer. please take this opportunity to make some coffee and a kebbab. :)

    the basiji are divided also. several have deserted because they are offered food and shelter; some because they cannot tolerate what they are doing any longer. the number of these latter are increasing daily. it costs the gov more to keep the ones who will stay. one tactic used is to beat a basij, then one will prevent the others- thus protecting him. this person will provide the basiji with medical care and food, while talking with him. few of these basiji return to their units, those who do spread dissent.

    everyone knows how corrupt the regime is. the IRG coup leaders become increasingly bold in their lack of regard for the law. besides, who will prosecute them? evidence of the sort which will damn them in the Hague is freely available. getting them to this institution is another matter.

    it may seem like 'suicide protesters' are not doing much. this is not the case. basiji are arresting fewer as protesters become smarter at what they do and basiji less enthusiastic. such demonstrations tie up resources and cost a stupendous amount of money. approximately 400k basiji are being paid the equivalent of 200 $US each day. the 'best' basij units have been moved to Tehran, meaning the country side are making their voices heard more now than previously. such protests give bazaari a legitimate excuse not to work. protests spur workers in other industries to be supportive in ways they are able.

    most importantly, these protests mean we continue to hold the high (moral) ground. the shadows cast by this regime are so stark because of the light shone by non violent protests. (also makes a good screen for increasing numbers of small, violent clashes taking place all over Iran)

    because we hold the high ground, clerics (mullahs is a little pejorative- i understand and do not judge its use, but i will not use it. as i do not use AN to address or speak of Ahmadi.) are continuing to speak with us. Montazeri has used almost my exact language from tweets. Rafsanjani (pistachios) is a grand Ayatolah. Sistani finally broke his silence to speak against Khamenei (yes he is outside Iran, but this is actually huge and i will try to post on that thread later). other clerics continue to speak out against the regime. in part because they are genuine leaders of Islam. in part because the army is providing some protection. mostly because an attack on the wise of Qom is to de-legitimize the IRG who cannot maintain power by force of arms alone. i have covered this extensively elsewhere and do not wish to be a bore.

    Abtahi is a cleric, yes. but his real role is as a very senior supporter of reformist politicians; similar is true of Nabavi. both myself and OxfordGirl have posted to the effect that these men's part in the show trials was only to pave the way for the arrests of Mousavi & Co. i warned last week that this was imminent. i understand warrants are being sworn for these arrests. these people also have some military protection.

    the shame and irony is IRIA is republican. Mousavi is not. he wants protection, but i have heard he will not recognize IRIA personnel who have died to supply arms/advice to resistance minded civilians. he also does not believe in the idea of Irani Republic. all to his detriment. he is almost as out of touch with the people in this regard as is the regime. he does not accept that there will be another (or perhaps continued) uprising if he is president. it was hoped that republican evolution (with Mousavi in office) would eliminate the need for a revolution. hopes have been dashed.

    no matter. Rafsanjani has been planning for these several eventualities for literally decades. anyone could see when an unqualified 'Ayatollah' was placed in the office of Supreme Leader for political reasons, the Islamic Republic was doomed. i have also posted extensively on this topic.

    you are correct in your assessment: the IRG coup leaders want war. they have nothing to lose at this point, and everything to gain. military estimates with which i am familiar are that a war would last approximately 48hrs and take between 500k and 1mil lives. this is because the basij are not trained in the genuine skills and trade of war, and the military has been training for weeks (and at other times) for this specific engagement. also, the IRG coup leaders do not have enough genuine (IRG) soldiers on their side. they may have lost quite a few more recently as i have heard retired Sepah generals who wrote Khamenei letters have been arrested. as of right now, no foreign military intervention is welcomed. i am trying to determine if nationalism would rally soldiers to the regime, or if we could all be partners in bringing down the regime should such intervention arrive. some of my contacts are non responsive. probably due to...

    events are escalating quickly in Iran, though it may not seem so to outsiders. arresting Mousavi & Co. is an act of war. i have heard Rafsanjani will only give FP if he can announce a radical shift in political structure. i will be surprised if Raf speaks. actually, if events continue in this vein, i will be surprised if there is a FP this week.

    all your questions, Gist101, toward the end of your post are valid. please allow me to remind you plans have been in the making for decades. Rafsanjani has been the father of these plans, and i presume he has the answers you and others seek. i have long been a champion of Rafsanjani. i am trying to determine if there is a way for a lowly worker of electricity to stay in contact with him.

    many of those perceived as 'loyal regime supporters' are actually simply political opportunists. no doubt the same in all societies. the true members of the inner circle are known, and they will all fight to the end. all others will see the weather on a new day and dress accordingly.

    i hope i have been of service. please be well.
  35. Mujahadeen-e-Khalq has been trying for decades

    to bring down the regime using terrorism and military style operations. They have not succeeded because they don't have the backing of the Iranian people.
    During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, I had the fortunate occasion to speak with a former Afghan Colonel who was leading an insurgent unit. He told me that they didn't need fancy weapons or high tech gadgets because what they had was determination to see it through to the end.
    The Afghans defeated the most powerful ground army in the World. They just wore tem down until they threw up their hands and left.
  36. Machiavelli Member

    I don't think, you'll need the help of foreign banks.
    Essentially you would ask them to not lend a helping hand to Iranian banks, if they happen to knock on the door.
    I doubt many banks would be daring enough to assist them anyway in the current situation.

    You could also encourage them to actively short the rial. The existence of the WSJ article is a hint, the whole situation has been widely noted already. But this is not exactly a freely traded currency. It is not tradeable on Currenex for example. I don't know anybody, who would be able to actively short it. I'm sorry, I don't have any contacts to big institutions.

    There is a quote for the rial in existence, though.
    Exchange Rates

    You can see, that the rial has fallen since the elections and it is very likely that the central bank is trying to defend it. They can do that by buying up rial in the OTC trade (trade by telephone with major institutions) with their currency reserves.

    These are the same currency reserves they have to use to support the banks, if those need more foreign currency because of internal demand.

    The whole game now consists of the question: How much is left? The only one to truly know is the Central Bank of Iran. As long as they can keep up appearances, they are fairly safe.
    But once foreign institutions or the public of Iran get the feeling of an imminent currency crisis, they're doomed. Once they stop to buy, noone at all will buy. Simply because foreign banks are faced with a situation they can not fully evaluate. They will hold back and not buy at all.
    And no buyer means free falling exchange rates (compare Argentina in 1999).

    The internal situation is similar:
    Banks are based on fractal reserve lending.
    They are prepared for a certain amount of withdrawals. If the withdrawals are too high, they have to borrow money, because their assets are not liquid.
    They can (theoretically, cough!, cough!) lend in the interbank market or they can lend money from the central bank.
    Of course the central bank will help them, they have unlimited amounts of rial and they can hand it out freely. They will claim to have unlimited amounts of foreign currency as well, just to keep up appearances. But the truth is: Iran's currency reserves never were exceptionally high and compared to the amount of rial bank deposits in today's exchange rate, they are negligible.

    Now you only have to throw in a looming general strike of undetermined length...
  37. Machiavelli Member

    Plead to doctors!

    Well, I'm an amateur in all things medical. But if people are forced to work at gunpoint, the obvious solution seems to me to play sick.

    So big question:
    Which illnesses can be easily simulated (especially, if faced with a silently sympathetic doctor)?

    i.e. drink 40 cups of strong mocca, hyperventilate, then write an ECG...

    Bear in mind, somebody might question the diagnosis. Think of an exit strategy for the doctor ("that's the results, in black and white", "how could I know that?").
  38. Hechicera Member

    Sounds like an excellent resistance without a nationally recognizable leader. Mousavi is at least recognizable now in foreign media and an action to protect him could be seen as protecting dissidents from a soft coup. I am using the terms "soft coup" to refer to the current situation where the Sepah has grabbed power. Most of the population here still seems to not know if the vote was legitimate or not.

    If Sepah were goaded into attacking militarily, not Basij beating civilians, then the argument of the soft coup becoming a hard coup could be made, and military action seen as defending against a coup. Then of course, a caretaker government, and an constitution referendum and/or election being called for immediately would present an image externally of a counter coup to the existing soft coup. The goal seen would have been to prevent a coup and (re)install a legitimate government.

    Unfortunately I think if a counter coup made first the strike, and installed Rafsanjai, it could also be seen as a hard coup. At would present to audiences here like say Madagascar. I'm just rambling about appearances, after what you said about Mousavi. That is quite sad. I hope it doesn't come to an internal military solution.

    As far as ways to pressure the existing powers uaing existing laws and structure, from the US side:

    hp-644: Fact Sheet: Designation of Iranian Entities and Individuals for Proliferation Activities and Support for Terrorism

    This needs pressure for more enforcement, and perhaps the pension funds that the IRGC uses as holding companies need to be added to the list for wider financial pressure. If the list of companies is not complete, it needs to be expanded.

    The list of individuals to be prohibited seems out of date and too small.
  39. Hey Bugs, all good, hope all is well with you too! Been stuck at work at university, but back for a couple of days now, gonna be interesting catching up on the forum, especially this particularly interesting thread.


    What I was trying to say in my post, is very closely linked to what sp4rrowh4wk also mentioned in his reply to me above. I thought it might be a bit of getting ahead of oneself, by just throwing out random tactics about different ways to cripple the regime. The random tactics I had especially in mind is the actual physical ones, as in disturbing electricity and oil networks permanently.

    First of all, by throwing these out here, they are more or less rendered useless if the presence of government people on this forum is taken into account. Now, I'm sure the government is already well prepared on these kinds of attacks, regardless if they are written here or not, but precaution is still important I think. In other words, any kind of planning or form of organization the web has the risk of putting the resistance back to the same level as the regime, instead of one step ahead. This goes for all kinds of specific "attacks", if you will.

    Secondly, I think it's a good idea to organize all of the possible procedures and tactics professionally (much easier said than done) in order to make them really feasible not only in theory but on the ground. However this contradicts myself, and is also once again directly linked to what sp4rrowh4wk said, that the regime and its followers also play wargames, and that includes tracking every significant counter-resistance being organized on the web, both inside and outside of Iran.

    I like what you said about the answer always being inside the group. Hopefully we are acting as a group here too, so this entire stew of ideas and suggestions will hopefully work itself into an organized form :)

    This brings me to my third point. Any kind of action requiring infiltration and physical disturbance inside Iran, is best left to the already established resistance groups within Iran. I have established a lot of trust in what you, sp4rrowh4wk, are posting on this forum based on your very thoroughly written and informative posts, so I'm glad to hear from you that resistance is organized and that communication is well-established. Thus, actions mentioned above and other actions in the same category will be carried out by the resistance if they find it necessary and possible, and "tips" from us will risk ending up harming them (correct me if I'm wrong :confused:).


    However, what interests me is what can be done economically to harm the regime. This would not be an attack on a specific target, but rather a form of micromanagement in reverse, as in micromanaging the economy into its own grave, or as close to it as possible. The amazing feature here is that people do not put themselves in harms way by "attacking" the regime this way, at least in no way near the dangers of going out and demonstrating.

    I am heavily involved in macroeconomics and have quite a few good contacts within my university (Sweden's biggest) that can help. If everybody here could gather their assets within this field, we can create some form of instruction manual covering every little thing each citizen can do in order to collapse the currency and thus the economy. Question is though, is this necessary or are people already deeply involved in these procedures? Do most people know what and how to do it? Is the window of opportunity too short in order to aim for an economic collapse, or is there time?

    What do you think sp4rrowh4wk? Once again, thank you very much for your invaluable posts and in-depth insight, they are indeed one of the most interesting to read :) Keep it coming!
  40. Hi sp4rrowh4wk! Is this a civil war you speak of? Or are the IRG planning an invasion?

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