Reliable Poll predicted landslide victory for Ahmadinejad Iran election 2009

Discussion in 'News And Current Events' started by Unregistered, Jun 17, 2009.

  1. [ame][/ame]
  2. EPG Member

    I have seen this guy on CNN. There is 1 problem, the poll he took as he has said in interviews is from 3 weeks before elections. 3 weeks before elections a good chunk of people were not even planning on voting (he said those people broke even, but notice how he is unclear about it). That is one thing, another problem is that just like in the U.S. where the younger generation use cell phones instead of land line the younger population which is a very large portion of voters in Iran use cell phones and not land lines. So yes, you could be calling a lot of land lines in conservative neighborhoods and coming up with those results THREE WEEKS prior to elections, but you are not taking into account the younger population at all. A lot of independant ONLINE poles were also taken, and those favored Mousavi by a land slide, and of course that consists more of younger voters, so what this man is saying is like me saying Mousavi was projected winner because he won by a land slide on online poles.
  3. I Ran Hubbard Member

  4. Ran, I rather believe a reliable institution that won award for reliablity than your link to a pro neoconservative site.
  5. IranPetition Member

    This is simply a question of sources. If one has more faith in fivethirtyeight than this report has been fully debunked.

    I do though commend the work of Ballen and Doherty. This information is accurate, it just has not been reported as so. It tells us one thing (Ahmadinejad commands a 20% lead over Mr. Mousavi) but is reported as telling us another (Ballen and Doherty have failed to mention that in their report over 25% of the electorate "Don't Know" who they will be voting for)
  6. Iran Deckard Member

    fivethirtyeight is pro neoconservative?

    lol @ troll
  7. EPG Member

    I don't even understand why this is still being debated when you can simply observe what's happening.

    It takes the government 2-3 days with access to every media outlet in addition to handing out goodies in the streets to organice a 3000 people rally...

    While it takes HUNDREDS of thousands of Mousavi supports to mobilize and protest with no SMS communication, no TV, Radio, or Newspaper access. Come on people.

    Ahmadinejad had to spend 2-3 days to mobilize people simply for his victory rally....wouldn't you have expected 63% of the voters to pour out in the streets right away and celebrate when they found out he won after such an intense election campaign? What did you see instead?
  8. It might simply be the case that the majority of people voted for Ahmadinejad but don't feel strongly about it. He reportedly had a lot of support from rural areas, small towns etc where people do not have much internet access and probably wouldn't be inclined to rally. Clearly the Mousavi supporters are much more passionate.

    I am surprised at how quickly the votes were counted though.
  9. What's happenining is not evidence for the election. It looks like media has reported extremely one-sided. Lies, biased are becoming truth. We have to be critical.

    This poll shows different things.
    1. Results about Karroub and Rezai are almost identical.
    2. Ahmadinejad won 34% whereas Mousavi 14%
    3. Those 27% might have voted for Ahmadinejad, because many people in Iran know about corruption in Rafsanjani family. Ahmadinejad is famous in Iran as not being corrupt. He tries to fight corruption, but Western media is demonizing him.

    See this link - researchers speak:

    A very well known scholar speaks:

    Do not let media manipulate your mind!
  10. EPG Member

    yes, but rural areas do not constitute the majority of Iran, and even within those rural areas, despite all the cash hand outs many parts received in 4 years still had a lot of Mousavi supporters for 2 reasons, 1 because they were familiar with his 8 year record during Iran-Iraq war, 2. because they did not exactly see the promises that had been made to them in the past 4 years.

    Only a few months ago there was a BBC report with a guy who went to Ahmadinejad's OWN rural home town and the people there were not happy with him.

    Another thing as you mentioned was the counting of 36 million votes in 3 hours lol.

    I live in the U.S. and voted Mousavi, I have friends with sources within the intrests section here and he was told that 90% of the votes in the U.S. went for Mousavi, yet one of gov't news websites (farsnews) claimed that Ahmadinejad even won the majority of votes in the U.S. and Europe lol.
  11. EPG Member

    The media is not manipulating minds, because what we are witnessing is from the people from within. I myself anyway have constant contact to people back home. I don't come from a rich family, my father is a retired gov't employee with little income, and my father's side family are all conservative with roots to the southern part of Tehran (lower class and conservative). Yet they all voted Mousavi, and my father is a first time voter after 30 years. Believe me, he is not the only first time voter in Iran after 30 years.

    What is happening today has exactly everything to do with the results.

    According to the constitution of Iran it is ILLEGAL for the supreme leader to congratulate the president and confirm it before the security council does so. Yet within an hour from the time Ahmadinejad was declared winner, the supreme leader came on the screens and congratulated the people on this victory and told them not to make this glorious election bitter on the people. And that was completely illegal but Khameneyi did not back down from it for 2 days. Then he came out and called upon people to unite behind the revolution, but that didn't quiet the people down.

    Today I spoke to a cousin in tehran, and he told me that Khameneyi is now saying that he only did what he did because he trusted the interior ministry and believed that everything was fine. This has nothing to do with the media, I for one can see where this is going.
  12. EPG Member

    With such a great gap between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad's votes they could have very easily agreed on a recount from the very beginning, yet instead the decided to bring out the anti-riot police which had already been stationed throughout the city during the counting, and have killed up to 15 people to this day being day 6 now. Why wouldn't they recount, it's not as if they have miscounted 10 million ballots....according to them anyway.
  13. I Ran Hubbard Member

    What I don't understand is that aside from the obvious problem with admitting to any problems with the election, they normally have two elections because of run-off voting, so why not just say, these two are the clear top candidates, and have one more election. That satisfies everyone. Of course if they dig rig the election, they should have went for 51% instead of trying to showboat.
  14. EPG Member

    Yes, they could have simply done that and called it a revote. But that's the problem, they didn't even want it to go into the second round, so they had to finish it off in the first round and get to business ASAP. They could have done a lot of things but they didn't.
  15. well apparently, this election was only a big slap on all iranian reformists' faces, showing them who's the Boss. 200K votes for a well known politican like Karrubi who had won near 5 miliion votes in the last election is just a direct insult from the government; just because he had said that he would reform the constitution..
  16. I Ran Hubbard Member

    Yeah seems odd to go from that many voters and lose them all.. Also in your hometown.
  17. I know this source. I can download the entire poll from here:

    They have won award for being very accurate. I think Ahmadinejad has won, but there is no hard evidence. This is the only one that i think is accurate, because it was done prior

    to election day. The prediction is very close. Especially the report warned that we do not believe government or other sources that come from Iran.
  18. Ahmadinejad won is called being batshit crazy and brainwashed.

    I suggest you read a lot more, before opening yap again
  19. EPG Member

    Even the conservative candidate Mohsen Rezaei requested for parts of the votes to be recounted and to also be given the detailed statistics of the votes, and as his request was not listened to he said he will take it up to higher legal systems if they do not pay attention to his request. Mohsen Rezaei is the former leader of Sepah and is of the conservative side just as ahmadinejad is. So it is not just Mousavi and Karoubi that say the elections were fixed, even Mohsen Rezaei has suspicions.
  20. Arsolycus Member

    The problem with the latest election in Iran is that it Achmadinijad won areas overwhelmingly that he did not previously carry in earlier elections and, he also won by MUCH larger margins in areas he barely carried in previous elections. You can use previous election results to determine a pattern of electoral behavior and most people who do that see that at best, Achmadinijad won by a SLIM margin or lost by the same type of margin.
  21. EPG Member

    Exactly, a win or loss by a very slim difference is possible and probably what happened sending it to the second round, but a land slide victory like this, except after 4 years of making Iran worse is impossible.
  22. Godspeed! Member

  23. cnewq5 Member

    Do US neocons prefer Ahmadinejad?

    Do US neocons prefer Ahmadinejad?

    Ahmadinejad could be their excuse to attack Iran, or allow a proxy attack by Israel.

    Conservative authors of heavily-quoted poll changed their conclusion to support validity of Ahmadinejad landslide. WHY?


    However, whether there was fraud or not, the protests are against something more than a stolen election.

    They are an explosion of pent up anger and frustration against the regime and the way it controls and dominates the lives of Iranian people.
  24. people on this site need to realize that it's not really about who won the election anymore it's about the Iranian people being tired of the regime and the mullah rats.
  25. EPG Member

    It is actually an important matter, today France24 mentioned the following news article, and it says the same thing, but actually DIRECTLY FROM Mosaad.

    Some Israelis Prize Ahmadinejad's Role
  26. the Ballen poll itself i believe was conducted fairly - i have no issue with it, but the fact that approximately 40% of the respondents chose Don't Know or Refuse To State options, is very significant and more likely an indication of intimidation as Nate Silver has rightly assumed.

    to explain - say you're an average voter in iran. some official comes up to you, asks you who you're going to vote for. now, you don't know if this is a Govt official or if they are watching, but you're aware that voters who support the opposition run a risk of getting visited by the Basij or the police - so what would you say? on the other hand Ahmadenijad is the president and has the backing of the Basij and is definitely a safer candidate to vote for.

    oddly enough the Ballen poll and the various op-ed pieces sort of united the neo and paleo (libertarian) conservatives. the neocons use it as a sign that the current govt is supported by the majority, meaning most iranians are radical muslims who support the destruction of israel and denial of the holocaust, and the antiwar libertarians use it and the various protests as indication that the US is somehow trying to manipulate this behind the scenes from the get go as some kind of color coded revolution (similar to the ones in the Ukraine and Georgia that we supported and financed).

    Regardless of the poll, it is screamingly obvious to anyone with any inkling of the power of internet based media that there are serious violations and irregularities with this voting process that you could drive a truck through.. the fact that these op-ed "journalists" cannot recognize this or refuse to, simply contributes to their inevitable downfall as reliable analysts of the situation.
  27. Paul Craig Roberts is a fine libertarian writer (think old style conservative). what these folk are always on the lookout for is any inkling of the Monroe Doctrine alive and at work in parts of the world (basically US imperialism).

    however, i have to say that when they don't find this evidence, they start exaggerating from what facts they've experienced previously with the current situation. they think that because the US has interfered in elections in the past there's a good chance they are doing so now.

    Paul Craig Roberts is wrong. is wrong. Anyone citing the Ballen survey as indication of the legality of the election is misguided. while there may be some advice and assistance from US govt in certain covert ways, this is really and actuality, a protest by a significant majority. OK it might not be 60% overall but it isn't 33% either. no way do you get that many people out on the streets with a well organized 30%. this just does NOT smell to me at the core like a backed coup by the US. there's way too much evidence to show otherwise.
  28. Where are the votes? Seriously, who has them? Could the government do a full recount, even if they wanted to?
  29. twelve Member

    There seems to be a little bit of confusion going on, what with these sorts of threads popping up. I speak only for myself, of course, but here goes:

    I really don't care about who got the most votes. I am here because internet people are being shot at. It is my intention to make life as uncomfortable for those responsible for this as I am able to, quite irrespective of any justification they may attempt to provide for their actions. Helping Iranians get around the firewall happens to be a relatively straightforward way of doing this.

    So, yeah.
  30. I didn't read all posts on this thread, only the first page.
    I think trusting one single poll is being too blind. Of course one poll can't tell the exact depends on a lot of demographic factors, and it's almost impossible for a single poll to cover all slices.
    That's what i think. :)
  31. Does U.S. poll rule out fraud in Iran?

    That poll does not suggest that Ahmadinejad would win the first round. It forecasted that he could win the second round, but no cigar in the first round of elections.

    On page 4 of the report we read "The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; meaning that a second round runoff between the two highest finishers, is likely."[1] In the Washington Post article it hides this crucial forecast of the TFT report and says "Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin"[2] Ahmadinejad declared victory in the first round by a landslide, contrarily to the TFT report conclusion. But Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty distort the truth to promote their own agenda (re:Bomb Bomb Iran).
    [1] Iran Survey Report 0609.pdf
    [1] and Google cache link:

  32. it was simply not possible to count enough paper ballots to declare a winner so quick

    therefore it was a fraud
  33. EPG Member

    Mohsen Rezaei, one of the candidates, and of the same party as Ahmadinejad, the hard line conservative, had an interview on tv yesterday, and even he stated that he believes certain violations may have took place as the interior ministry did not even respond to his requests of releasing exact ballot details. He sympathized with the people and said their complaint should be responded to with the truth. He said just because he congratulated Ahmadinejad on his victory, does not mean he will accept the results and has already sent in some complaints.

    Again, Mohsen Rezaei, former head of IRGC is a hard-line conservative but also a critic of Ahmadinejad, and skeptical towards the election results.
  34. The one thing about polls is that they are all skewed. How do we know if every voter within the house was questioned, or if one person in the house was "speaking" for everyone else. (Maybe they called when everyone was at work except that one sibling that is home from college? It happens...)

    Look at the tally of the polls listed on the wiki page and none of them even match 1% of the total vote. (The ILNA report was pretty close though)

    Maybe something Mousavi said during debates upset more people than he thinks? I do not know...too many cultural, ethnic, religious, and language differences for me to even try to say which side should have won. But I do know how to be surprised by a few elections. Bush/Gore AND Bush/Kerry anyone?

    Deal with it, and speaking from past experiences, good luck...
  35. The whole thread is to distract you

    There is no such thing as reliable poll which its result were made available to the public. Of course, the government controlled agencies carried out a number of secret polls which were showing much more support for Mousavi; but, those who ran the coup also prepared the rudiments very carefully to use for future deception and so on. Why some people can't think deep even when they are seeing obvious signs of cheating on the ground?

    The whole thread is made to mislead those who don't know anything about Iran's political atmosphere. Ahmadinejad had even lost his support to a great extent among the rural people due to retarded economic policies with huge imports from countries like China, Cuba, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela. Another thing is that you must know that Mousavi was the prime minister of Iran during the eight year long war between Iran and Iraq. Most of the Iranians have a good image of that era and this is not a thing that can be denied by few pro-Ahmadinejad fanatics. Mousavi was heavily supported by Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of Islamic Republic of Iran, during that those days and that's why they can not easily label him has pro this ot that.

    Please think and then talk
  36. Media

    This is just a western media manipulation! America is trying to take control over iran, and this mousavi is under american control :) I don't care about either of them, i am worried about you, it is so easy to make people protest, and that is good way of promoting your own politic. Come to Bosnia and you will see how america is indolent on helping people!
    And Iran helped my country in recent war so i wish them all best!!!
  37. The limitless gullibility of the American people guarantees carte blanche to the US governments schemes. Americans seemingly cannot put two and two together. They have already forgotten the lies about weapons of mass destruction that have resulted in the destruction of Iraq. They have forgotten Secretary of State Colin Powells publicly expressed remorse at the lies he told the UN. Americans blithely accept the conflation of Talliban with al Qaeda and terrorists and the new war that the Obama regime has started in Pakistan, a war that has already produced 2 million refugees.
  38. Yes!

    All nations save them for 5-10 years.

    You should read this post:

    It is about the many pools pre election, and most predicted this results.

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