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The Revolution Will Not Be Hijacked

Discussion in 'News And Current Events' started by FintanDunne, Jul 17, 2009.

  1. Ray Murphy Member

    All Iranian people need, is for the law to be observed (not the unlawful proclamations but the law itself).

    If the law is observed by everyone, then no one will get hurt and the majority will gradually get what they want via campaigning or dealing.

    The only bit of law that could be a problem is that which covers the final decision that was made to uphold the *supposed* election results, but there would HAVE to be a way to undo it and hold a new supervised election.
  2. JohnDoe Moderator

    Whey hey we agree! This is by the people & for the people, and the people WILL win.
  3. :) Luv ya.
  4. Ray Murphy Member

    No, if he hadn't presented his perfect sermon and speech, people would have given up and gone home in disgust. He is the key to the whole thing and the protestors will get nearly everything they want.
  5. Visionary Member

    Since everyone's already talking about the speech in here...

    Mowj: “State TV sold out Hashemi to China; censored the people” niacINsight
  6. JohnDoe Moderator

    I don't think they would have given up, I think it would take a lot longer - maybe even years, but the anger against this system is still there, doesn't matter how deep it is, it's there.

    I do, however think that Raf did give the perfect speech in the circumstances, and that has strengthened their hand, and accelerated the whole thing - perhaps down to weeks or at the most months.

    On a different note, it's also big news that the chief Mullah in Mashad did not greet & accompany Amamadman yesterday. This is unheard of. And I thought in some of the photos that I studied of him he looked distinctly strained and depressed - that grin was far gone from his face.
  7. This is speculation, Ray. Disgust can drive people home. Disgust can drive people to the streets. Disgust can persuade people to offer their blood for their children, for their homeland.

    An ounce of loyalty is worth a pound of cleverness. Raf's speech was merely clever.

    I will concede that Raf was the inciting incident in today's upwelling of grassroots independence. But key is a stretch.

    By attempting to serve two masters, Raf has failed in leadership. Nature abhors a vacuum. Therefore the people filled it and led themselves. This was the sea-change: the foregoing of popular dependence on leaders who mistake equivocation for truth.
  8. Ahmamadman

    I think Ahmamadman just ran a red light. And he is about to get a ticket.
  9. FintanDunne Member

    Scary is Right!

    Very scary, yeah. They had to cover the initial protests. Because their traffic would desert them for the blogs and YouTube. But after Jacko they never let it get above the radar again.

    The media blind spots are ominous.

    --No media org reflected the millions at the first big protest.
    --BBC Persia didn't do live coverage of 7Tir, nor did the US Networks
    --CNN printed an early report of 3,000 on 7Tir and NEVER came back to update.
    --All the other media orgs took their lead then from CNN's figure. A joke estimate.
    --More downplaying today.
  10. Ray Murphy Member

    No, he walked the tightrope perfectly. Look, he and Mousavi came out alive and the people will STILL win.
  11. Persuade me. I'm listening.

    I am tempted to say Mousavi-who? But I won't. ;) I want the people to take their freedom, Ray.
  12. Further to my last post, Ray, one grid for leadership is that a leader is responsible for

    1. task accomplishment
    2. group cohesion
    3. personal needs (boots for the troops)

    Persuade me that Raf has consciously set out to achieve these goals.
  13. *ostadi is from rafsanjani's camp. rafi is making his moves. i hate his guts, but have to admire the guy's cunning.
  14. SORRY. i meant vaez-tabasi.

    ostadi, i dont think anyone here noticed or talked is actually a hardliner, and would be the first hardliner to publically speak out against ahmadinejad. this one is big news, unlike many of the other fake big news before about mullahs changing sides
  15. FintanDunne Member

    On Twitter:

    jimsciuttoABC:

    Protester:
    "Protests you see are organized by the people themselves
    & have nothing to do with Mousavi or any other leader" #iranelection

    Protester:
    "Desires are growing everyday. Now people not satisfied
    with recount or minor changes. Main target is govt" #iranelection

    Protester:
    "if Mousavi doesnt start leading, people will bypass him
    and the situation will get worse
  16. Yeah, it would get a lot worse. Armed groups like MEK and Jundallah are going to start appealing to more people, and new groups will spring up everywhere. There are plenty or arms available in the countries on both sides of Iran. Mousavi needs to step up and lead so this shit doesn't go like Lebanon. But look at it from his point of view. He knows what the regime is capable of more than anyone, and he knows that if he is dead he can't lead shit. He is a good man, but he doesn't have superpowers. He needs support from people like Rafsanjani and others.

    They need to vote the ayatollah out, and have his son arrested for stirring this shit up. The son is the one behind ahamadinejad being in power, and behind the basiji. The son needs to go. If he goes, the ayatollah may not need to go himself, and then things can continue to change from within the system.

    But who expects the ayatollah to turn his own son over, or cut him off from power?

    If it starts to go Lebanon, the son is going to die anyway. It would be better for the father to cut him off and exile him or put him in prison than loose him. If the ayatollah had any sense, that is what he would do. But he will hold on, until he looses everything he has.

    I hope that if this gets violent, people can remember sanity and lay aside the violence when it is no longer necessary, instead of letting it hold onto them and change them. It obviously did that to those in power now. Violence has become their bread and butter.
  17. Ray Murphy Member

    TWO IN ONE:

    [Ray]: No, he walked the tightrope perfectly.

    [Bugs]: Persuade me. I'm listening.

    [Ray]: See below
    ---

    [Ray]: Look, he and Mousavi came out alive and the people will STILL win.

    [Bugs]: I am tempted to say Mousavi-who? But I won't. I want the people to take their freedom, Ray.

    [Ray]: Mousavi who? You know, the Mousavi who was one of the few
    public people in Iran who was brave enough to mention the Constitution
    and say that the people have a right to protest peacefully -- the guy who
    put his life or freedom on the line to make sure it happened. The only guy
    who gave the protestors hope - that Mousavi.

    It doesn't matter if Mousavi even nominates for the replacement election,
    as long as the majority of voters get who vote for. If they get to that stage
    AND they can protest peacefully, then they can get what they want.

    [Bugs]: Further to my last post, Ray, one grid for leadership is that a
    leader is responsible for

    1. task accomplishment
    2. group cohesion
    3. personal needs (boots for the troops)

    Persuade me that Raf has consciously set out to achieve these goals.


    [Ray]: His priorities were:
    1. Protecting Islam from ridicule.
    2. Protecting an Islamic country from disintegration.
    3. Keeping Islam in the Constitution - even if only nominally.
    4. Saving lives of protestors
    5. Reducing the bashings, torture and rape
    5. Coercing his religious colleagues to do the right things.
    6. Getting journalists back on the streets to satisfy people
    7. Getting an open and free media to satisy people
    8. Getting a new and fair election to satisfy people
    9. Getting an interim government to pacify people quickly
    10. Preventing an imminent attack by Israel
    11. Staying alive and keeping Mousavi alive
    12. Allowing numerous powerful people to save face.
    13. Gettng peaceful protests to be a normal part of life
    14. Minimising unruly/dangerous protests
    15. Showing that Muslim leaders fixed the problem - not military.
    16. Showing that Islam had the answers/principles all along.
    17. Reminding everyone that the law is adequate if it is observed.
    18. Providing enough satisfaction immediately

    He has already achieved or will achieve nearly all of those things very soon.
    It's what I would have done in the circumstances.
  18. Visionary Member

    The Raw Story | US welcomes call for end to Iran foreign media ban

    Of course, CNN probably wouldn't cover it anyway. :p
  19. Oh that Mousavi! I thought you meant the Mousavi who ordered the killings and gang rapes of those students -- what 40K - 100K? -- last time he was in power.

    The guy who put his life on the line... hmmm... when did this happen exactly? Can you remind me?

    Mousavi has had greatness thrust upon him. I question whether his shoulders are broad enough to bear the burden of leadership in a grassroots movement for freedom.

    So far, we have seen two levels of engagement. One, a chess-game of words among the clerics and opposition leaders. Two, a flesh-and-blood presence in the streets of Iran and in the eyes of the world among the people of Iran.

    Words are cheap. In this case, are these words even particularly uplifting words or merely clever words stating the obvious?

    Lives are not cheap. They are precious, beyond price. Yet this is what the people have brought to the table.

    That has not answered my question. Let's start this way:

    1. What among the dazzling array of available tasks is the central task expected of leadership in times such as these in Iran? More specifically: what must be achieved for the people? What leadership ACTIONS are necessary to achieve this?

    2. What leadership ACTIONS galvanize all the people and bond them one to the other, including the ethnic minorities?

    3. What are the personal support needs of the people? What leadership ACTIONS will meet these needs?

    Anything other than these three sets of questions serves to mystify, mislead, and surprise the people themselves. And that would identify the people as the enemy of the clerics and opposition leaders. Do you not get that?

    This is not complicated.
  20. @ Bugs Bunny

    But Rafsanjani is not a reformist, is not a revolutionary he is a mullah and all his words and deeds are aimed at two things - to save Islamic Republic of Iran and to save the money he and his family got stealing from people of Islamic Republic of Iran.
    That was the aim of his Friday sermon.
    He is not a leader who will push Iranians forward, towards change. He will try to keep everything as it is.
    People started to protests because of economy, corruption, money-grubbing mullahs, lack of new jobs and (some) because of foreign policy. Rafsanjani is not trying to change things, he is only putting safety band on open wound. I am afraid that the problems will not dissapear but will get stronger. And that would be a real disaster.
  21. I hear ya. :)
  22. Ray Murphy Member

    I've never heard of that Mousavi. I'm talking about the Mousavi
    that the majority of Iranian people allegedly voted for in the recent election.
    If your Mousavi has been prosecuted and found guilty of those alleged
    crimes, I suggest that you alert the voters before the new election is held.

    Yeah sure, it happened several weeks ago exactly. It has been splattered all over the internet for weeks on end. Mousavi was threatened with jail or worse if he didn't stop his protest campaign.

    I dunno where you got this "greatness" idea from. The guy simply stood for office and planned to do a job he was familiar with -- with REAL power behind him. He had no intention of leading a mob of protestors against a vicious regime in some sort of theatrical way that some people seem to have conjured up. He knows his country and the people too well to try any of those Hollywood stunts. He's not great and never will be. He's just brave - perhaps a little braver than the average protestor - perhaps a little less.


    This is an entirely different culture to yours and mine. These people
    in Iran use respect and they learn from the past - unlike our mob who insist on learning the hard way all the time and ignoring their culture and heritage.

    Originally Posted by Ray
    : His priorities were:
    1. Protecting Islam from ridicule.
    2. Protecting an Islamic country from disintegration.
    3. Keeping Islam in the Constitution - even if only nominally.
    4. Saving lives of protestors
    5. Reducing the bashings, torture and rape
    5. Coercing his religious colleagues to do the right things.
    6. Getting journalists back on the streets to satisfy people
    7. Getting an open and free media to satisy people
    8. Getting a new and fair election to satisfy people
    9. Getting an interim government to pacify people quickly
    10. Preventing an imminent attack by Israel
    11. Staying alive and keeping Mousavi alive
    12. Allowing numerous powerful people to save face.
    13. Gettng peaceful protests to be a normal part of life
    14. Minimising unruly/dangerous protests
    15. Showing that Muslim leaders fixed the problem - not military.
    16. Showing that Islam had the answers/principles all along.
    17. Reminding everyone that the law is adequate if it is observed.
    18. Providing enough satisfaction immediately

    He has already achieved or will achieve nearly all of those things
    very soon.
    It's what I would have done in the circumstances.


    It is complicated - the way you present it.
    Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is not a leader of the protestors, and he's not a leader of the Iranian people, and he's not a leader for minorities - he is a Muslim Holy man whose job it is to provide credible and truthful guidance at this critical time. He simply did his job.
  23. Ray Murphy

    Majority of people in high positions in Iran have blood on their hands. Mousavi is not exception. So please, do not tell the BS that he could have been prosecuted. Prosecuted by his buddies, the same people who agreed that after revolution some of the others (tudeh, secularists and so on) should go to prison or be killed? . If suddenly an Islamic Republic started to prosecute all who were guilty of killing, the upper Iranian bureaucracy would be very empty.
    But it is in the past.
    People change.
    As for Rafsanjani he did what he does best, he saved himself. But with him giving an advice to all, I am afraid for future of Iran.
  24. Visionary Member

    In light of the different opinions we've all seen and heard and have about Rafsanjani's speech and where it places him compared to the protesters and the revolution, I find it interesting to see the headlines for some news articles in the newsfeed.

    Rafsanjani draws thousands of protesters in Iran - Detroit News
    Rafsanjani is welcomed aboard Iran's green wave - Financial Times
    Iran leader Rafsanjani rallies opposition - The Washington Times
    Hardline Iran editor: Rafsanjani backs "law-breakers" - Boston Globe
  25. Hechicera Member

    Normally I'd say I find this hard to believe, but with standards in MSM, I'll let it slide. Would you be so kind, since you are not anonymously posting and using your resume as proof of your veracity to please tell me what mainstream media organizations you have been employed by?

    No where did I say dispassionate. "Oh the humanity!" would never have entered the common lexicon if Morrison had been dispassionate about the Hindenberg. I think your response to me is disingenuous, and designed for emotional appeal.

    I was calling you out on observer viewpoint (goal of old-style professional journalistic standards) vs. participant viewpoint.

    You claim to refute my assertion, but go on in your post to continue the thread, with this:

    Which lead to a raised eyebrow, laughter, and then a facepalm.

    If you just call yourself an activist, I'm fine. I don't really have an issue with you caring. Most of us are here because we care. I'm only cringing when you call the second part of your post professional journalism. But heh, maybe objective journalism was already dead anyway. I'm old, and grumpy enough, to buy that.
  26. Akhbar Azadi Member

    Does that include the millions of PEOPLE who DID vote for Ahmadinejad? I loathe him as much as the next man, but we cannot forget he does enjoy support and that we have a huge chasm in Iran at the moment. Simply giving the "people" instant freedom, without building a credible structure to facilitate it, is a recipe for further disasters IMHO.
  27. That's a *wholly* man (NOT holy man) with wads and wads of money at his disposal (he is considered one of the richest men in the Mid East, after all) with an indictment to his name in Europe given his role in the 1990s of the chain murders of political dissidents to the Islamic Republic.
  28. They are the same Mousavi, Ray. :eek:

    Why would a hard-line regime prosecute a hard-line candidate? Let us remember that the Ayatollah approved of all four candidates -- including Mousavi -- before they were allowed to run for election.

    As for alerting the voters, they have been alerted. A lot of people, particularly women, passionately do not want Mousavi anywhere near the halls of power.

    So far, Ray, this has been a campaign of words. Only words. Words are not going to save the people. Only actions will save the people. Threats are only words.

    Let us remember that these are politicians, Ray, including Mousavi. It is critical to look beyond words to actions.

    Fintan Dunne refers to greatness in his blog entry. That's where I got the idea from. I was responding to what Fin said.

    Fin claimed that greatness has been thrust upon Mousavi by the people. (Greatness is another way of saying genuine leadership, if you will.)

    Cyrus I of Persia was known as Cyrus the Great because of his conquests, because of his statesmanship, because he declared that people are free to choose whom they will worship, and because he backed that up by freeing hundreds of thousands of slaves. He was a man of inspiring words and a man of inspiring action.

    I elaborated somewhere along the line by reminding ourselves of the original quote on greatness:

    Yes. He thought it would be a walk in the park. It wasn't.

    Exactly. The people have "conjured up" what they expect of him. All I am saying is what you are saying: Mousavi has no intention of doing what is expected of him. Whether it is theatrical or not is a red herring and therefore irrelevant.

    Let's not mischaracterize the clearly demonstrated and legitimate goals of the people by diminishing them to the status of "Hollywood stunts." The people co-opted Mousavi for their liberation. He has no intention of serving them in the way they expect. Simple

    I agree.

    Moreover, what kind of person would aspire to lead the people in times such as these without aspiring to greatness -- praying for greatness -- begging on bended knee for greatness?

    For the people themselves have shown their own greatness.

    How can a small man lead a great people?



    I disagree.

    I agree.

    This is a faulty generalization, Ray. Let us not descend to the level of fallacy.

    I live in a multicultural society, where different cultures are celebrated. We speak two official languages and I live in a city where you can expect to hear vast numbers of different languages spoken in business. I myself speak three languages fluently and read two more. And I am a relative dweeb among my neighbours. Some of us learn from history. Some choose not to. We are free to be wrong.

    No. You simply do not like the question. Your not liking the question does not make it complicated.

    The question actually is simple.

    You presented a list of what you believe Raf achieved. Fair enough. But the list did not address the question.

    The question was about what NEEDED to be achieved. Not about what Raf WANTED to achieve. Not even about what he DID achieve. What the people NEEDED him to achieve.

    I agree.

    But some folks are saying that he exercised a leadership role in sending the people back into the streets by some sort of "subtle" insinuations that only these people understood. All I am saying is that he did not do that.

    Logic and truth are not relative to culture, Ray. Logic and truth do not hide in subtleties, they do not hide in the darkness. They are out in the open sunlight for all to see.

    OK. Fair enough. He did his job. And then he undid his job. That is all I have been saying all along. As soon as he said something, he unsaid it. He set an example for the people to play it safe; to say one thing and do another.

    What did the people say in return by means of their actions? We will not play it safe. We want freedom. Safe does not win freedom. We will hit the streets. We will be free.

    That's all I'm saying. :) Simple. Easy peasy.
  29. Mousavi's past, forgive me for saying so, seems to be an ocean of blood. How he has not drowned in it is a mystery to me. Estimates of the mass executions under Mousavi range from 40K to 100K. And then there were the gang rapes. :( Why were those necessary? :confused:

    I hear ya.

    Yes. All that is in the past. We are called to forgive each other, are we not? And sometimes, some people do change.

    But extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs.

    It is an extraordinary claim to say that Mousavi has changed since the sad time of the mass executions and gang rapes. Where is the extraordinary proof of this change?

    I am willling to believe that the Mousavi of today is a changed, humble man. But I need to see the proof. That's all I am saying.

    I hear ya. All the best to ya.
  30. Expectations.

    In light of the virtual silence of the MSM during the protests, I find it interesting to see what point of view they have taken after the fact.
  31. What for? You are attempting to make an ad hominem case against Fintan. This is illogical. It only matters what Fintan said, not who Fintan is. If you want to defeat Fintan's graph, then defeat it on the merits or demerits of the graph itself -- not on Fintan's resume. His resume is irrelevant.
  32. I am not sure exactly what you are saying here. Perhaps you could help me by elaborating. You have described a problem. Do you envision a solution?

    I do agree that there seems to be a huge chasm, and multiple divisions within Iranian society at the moment. Correct me if I am wrong. Widespread unemployment, poverty, and fear among the people. Terrible persecution of ethnic minorities.

    People I believe are looking for leadership. They are looking for someone to tell them how to live, where to go from here. Some, out of desperation, will run to the nearest strongman -- the devil they know is better to them than the devil they don't know. This is understandable among people whose own economic downfall has robbed them of their freedom.

    But the kind of strongmanism that we have seen is not leadership. It leads the people nowhere. It keeps them stuck.

    Maybe I am naive, but I believe that God does not give life lightly. To each and every one He has given unique gifts and He has given freedom to use those gifts. It is wrong to keep people stuck so that they cannot use their gifts to better their own circumstances and to better the world in which they live.

    Trouble is that often when a person does not know when he/she will eat next, he/she does spend a lot of time dreaming of being a brain surgeon or composing the next great poem. This is a tragedy.

    Did I ever say "giving the people instant freedom"?

    The people already have a manifesto. I'll see later on today if I can dredge it up and post it here.
  33. White Spot gives you a pirate ship to wear on your head. :p

  34. Hi I am new here but I think this is a very important conversation
    The whole tactics of BASIJ.
    Basiji secret services meeting Audio 07/16/2009 : Firstmoon DOWNLOAD AND LISTEN TO IT CAREFULLY.
    Could you please put this in the right place

    Thanks.
  35. Ray Murphy Member

    I think everyone in Iran and everyone here would agree that the problems will get worse if something is not improved very, very quickly, i.e within a week or so. For me it is unthinkable that everything would remain unchanged.
  36. Ray Murphy Member


    I didn't say Mousavi could have been prosecuted. I asked if he had been prosecuted. I don't know the history or whether some of the allegations against him are urban myths or political spin.

    It's the same for the leaders of all countries who have been involved in wars or 'police actions' or fighting rebels etc. They all have blood on their hands, but do we let political opponents decide what their actual offences (if any) were?
  37. Ray Murphy Member

    Very interesting!
    It would be a good idea to gather more of these.

    Attached Files:

  38. Ray Murphy Member

    Yes, someone would need to email a script if no leader was available.
  39. Ray Murphy Member

    Was he observing the law?
    It might sound like a silly question, but what WERE the laws he allegedly broke?
  40. Hechicera Member

    I'm not tex. This is not about the graph. That is some other thread isn't it? For that go here:
    http://iran.whyweprotest.net/off-to...ch-discredits-fintandunne-green-movement.html

    I questioned the journalistic tone of the OP. Not Fintan at first, but my BS detector started to register, putting the OP together with past posts he has made. As I've said before, I don't mind his support here. But, I just tossed out the ... hmm that seems odd post. In the post exchange I also tossed out the reasonable outs and explanations I have been given by actual journalists as excuses for the same lack of tone, esp. when posting "privately" on a message board.

    He took none of the outs. But, rather than make me comfortable, his response pegged my BS detector at max. If he had defended himself by the assertion (as you did) that I'm a blogger not a pro, I would have shrugged and moved along. He sounds like a blogger not a pro.

    Nah, his response was
    I don't believe that for a minute after his responses in this thread, especially after reading the last two links in the thread rebutting his graph. So, he needs to put up, or I guess be considered "a blogger". Heck, I know bloggers with more professionalism than MSM reporters. I don't even have an issue with that. He does. Something smells. He made the claim, I asked him to back it up. He is spewing some BS (re: journalistic standards).

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